Forecasting the Cloud - Q2 Edition of ETM Just Published

ETM - Enterprise Technology Management - is a quarterly publication with a global focus on IT trends and issues. The print version is a pretty high-end production, with lots of rich content, including contributions from the analyst community.

I write for them occasionally, and was invited to contribute to this issue, which is solely focused on the cloud. My article is one of the lead stories, and the online edition has just been published.

If you want to immerse yourself in the latest thinking on the cloud, you should download the Q2 issue now - and if you like what you see, you should subscribe to receive the print edition. You can access the download link from the Editor's welcome page here, and then take your time. It's a dense publication - over 130 pages - but they use 3D Issue, an eBook magazine platform, which makes for a great online reading experience. Would love to hear your thoughts!

Connectivity Week - Next Week - My Smart Meter Session

Those who follow me know that I continue to stay active in the smart grid space, and one way is by participating at Connectivity Week, which takes place next week in Santa Clara. It's a solid event, and I've been doing a few things to help spread the word.

I'll be there the full time, and will be most visible as the moderator for a session titled "AMI Consumer Backlash – Perceptions and Realities". It's a topic I'm quite keen on, and for anyone either currently using a smart meter in their home, or have been approached by their utility about it, you can't help but feel strongly one way or another.

It's pretty hard to be on the fence with smart meters, and it's one of the most contentious topics in smart grid. The topic will be pretty prominent during Connectivity Week, and I'm happy to be presiding over this panel, which should be a nice exclamation point at the end of the conference.

If this helps change your mind about coming to the conference, great! If you're attending, I just want to get this session on your radar, and hope you can join us. We have a great roster, and joining me will be Mark Toney of TURN, Ward Camp of Landis + Gyr, Larry Owens of Silicon Valley Power, and John Cooper of Ecomergence.

For more detail on our panel and the speakers, here's the synopsis. You'll be hard pressed to get a more complete perspective on the state of unrest from this group, and just for good measure, I'll add my take from a writeup I did on TMC's Smart Grid Portal a few months back.

Dimension Data - Brand Refresh

When you're busy, you're busy. During the Dimension Data event 2 weeks ago in Boston, part of the buzz was around their rebranding. I've commented about the event itself, but the branding refresh was under embargo until Tuesday of this week. Given my travels the past few days, this is my first chance to post about it.

To catch you up, the details are nicely spelled out in their press release from Tuesday.

During their event, we could see the new branding everywhere, but we just couldn't talk about it externally. I did, however take some photos, and here's one that shows the before and after.



As you can see, the color scheme is brighter and greener - a nice nod to global warming, etc. - which of course, is a big deal in the energy-intensive data center space. Also, the lettering has shifted to lower case, and everything is more rounded, even the around the points of the triangle in their logo. I'm not a design expert, but this does come off as a friendlier look, and reinforces their mantra about being customer-centric. Works for me.

If you haven't gotten your fill of DiData yet, I have one more thing to share with you. I just wrote up my views on where Unified Communications fits into their roadmap, and that was just published this afternoon on the UCStrategies portal.

Multichannel Contact Centers - More Options, but Challenging

My latest post for Exony is on the topic of multichannel contact centers. The premise is that multichannel affords more options for supporting customers, but has a lot of associated challenges to make it actually work. Some issues are obvious, but others are more subtle, and when you get a bit granular, a lot of interesting decision points come up around how best to manage things.

If that's of interest, I hope you'll read my analysis, which is running now on my column page on Exony's site. As always, comments are welcome.

Microsoft and Skype - Now THAT's Interesting!

MicroSkype? - clunky, but there's a fit here. I've been traveling, and haven't been able to comment on this news til now. It's too late for news, and you've probably read enough about this already, so I'll just add a few thoughts here. I should add that the UCStrategies group did a podcast on this yesterday, and while I missed that, it's ready now - here's the link.

Since I am behind the curve here, I'll at least point you to colleague Dave Michels, who had the scoop on this ahead of almost everyone - here's his take.

My turn - in short, it's good for Microsoft because...

- both have deep, global reach with consumers, with lots of ways to help each other's brands - two strong brands for very familiar products is a great foundation for growth - and don't forget about their stake in Facebook - interesting, no?

- they need a new hit for the consumer space - and just think about how well this could play with Xbox

- Skype is on track for $1 billion in revenues, so there's a nice financial impact right off the bat

- it's a great fit with Lync to help them succeed with in the business market as they shift from software to the world of apps, UC and the cloud - think about the collaboration and real time messaging possibilities with Windows, Office and Skype - both for enterprises and especially SMBs (where MSFT stumbled with Response Point)

- again, for the business market, Skype brings the critical voice piece that MSFT never really had - this will reduce their dependence on telecom vendors, and makes you wonder if they're seeing something in Skype that Avaya wouldn't/couldn't see

- they need to stay relevant in the mobile market, and with Skype's user base, this opens a lot of doors for disruptive mobile offerings - and just think how interesting this would become if they went on to acquire RIM

- it's affordable financially, but is probably their biggest acquisition to date

- they need to shake things up overall to keep pace with Google, Apple and Cisco - plus this keeps Skype away from them - MSFT can't match these companies now for coolness, and Skype's cachet can help this in hurry - it's a bit like free agency in sports - MSFT needs a power bat and Skype is the best option available today

- they need an infusion of innovation and out-of-the-box thinking, and that has been Skype's calling card - maybe not as much as in the early days, but the culture is still there

It's also good for Skype because...

- they get a partner/acquirer who can help them reach fuller potential in less time than staying independent

- not only do they have a stronger product set to integrate with, but a great user base (sans IBM Sametime and the Mac world), as well as established channels for distribution

- the pressure is off for an IPO (they are carrying a lot of debt, after all), and this is a nice, tidy exit for the investors and founders

- the pressure is off Avaya to find/create synergies with them - now both can go their separate ways, but could well meet again as competitors


There's SO much to be said about all these points, but time is short in my world right now, and I have to move on. Don't let that stop you from adding to the conversation - am always keen to hear your thoughts.

Oh, before signing off, this news took me to the Wayback Machine and my early days of blogging. There was a time, folks, when Skype and Apple sounded like a good idea - and back in 2005, I sure thought so! Imagine what could have been if Skapple happened, and add to that the iPhone world of today. Whoo wee...

What's the future for the desk phone?

That's a big question facing telecom vendors these days, and I've posted my views from time to time. Tech Target is a portal I write for occasionally, and they recently engaged me to write about this topic for their SearchUnifiedCommunications.com site.

If it's well received, I hope to be writing an expanded series of articles to further explore what the future may hold for desk phones. Ultimately, the readers will determine that, so all I can ask is for you to read the current article (registration may be required for full text, but it just takes a minute), and let them know if you'd like to see more!

ShoreTel - Doing Just Fine

Sometimes, it's really hard to blog about timely items, and the past week or so has been one of them. There have been some pretty good quarterly reports lately from companies I follow, but I just haven't been able to get to them. However, the stars have lined up to get to one of them, albeit a week or so late. No matter - I haven't posted about ShoreTel in a while, so they're due.

By nature, public companies have to share a lot of information, and for the line-by-line items, I'll steer you to the press release for their Q3 reporting from last week.

ShoreTel's fiscal Q3 lines up with the calendar Q1, so the results are pretty current. It's a good news story all around, and I just want to share my takeaways.


- It's always nice to hear about growth, but even better to the numbers on a chart! Revenues keep growing steadily - up 8% from their Q2, and an impressive 39% from Q3 2010.

- ShoreTel cracked the $50 million level in Q3 - $51.6, and are on track for hitting $200 million in annual sales. That's pretty decent.

- The other metrics are all trending stongly - gross margins, licenses, customer adds, etc. There's long been a knock on ShoreTel for not being profitable, but even there, they posted net income of $602,000. If they can stay in the black, the company will truly be firing on all cylinders.

- Not to be overlooked is $103 million in the bank with no long term debt, so really, how concerned should you be about the company, now that they're break-even or better?

- I think the market has already answered that question. Their stock is at a 52 week high, hovering around $11, with a spike of $1.52 after the earnings came out. Back in March, it was under $7, so there's a nice trend happening here.

- Business-wise, ShoreTel is showing results across all sizes of businesses. They've always had a strong SMB presence, but now, 31% of their 1.7 million end-user licenses are in 500+ employee businesses.

- International growth is looking good - another indicator of a company getting to the next level. Markets outside the U.S. account for 12% of revenues, including a 100% jump from last year up here in Canada.

- Market share is another important metric. Based on Synergy Research's data, ShoreTel has 6% of the U.S. enterprise telephony market. This may seem small, but 75% of the market is with either Cisco or Avaya/Nortel. So for the rest of us, Synergy's data indicates that ShoreTel hase the biggest slice of the pie. Actually, what's more interesting about this data is the trend for the big two. As of Q2 2009, they were pretty even - about 35% each. Since then, Cisco has trended up, and Avaya/Nortel down - Cisco is up on them 11 points now, at 43.4%. That's a big shift.

- Otherwise, there's lots of good news about new customers and product launches/developments. Of particular note are working relationships with Polycom and HP. Both will help them be more effective against the big guys, especially Cisco - plus, the added video pieces will strengthen their UC and collaboration stories.

Dimension Data Perspectives 2011 - Thoughts

Have been in Boston the past few days, taking part in this event. Dimension Data is doing a lot of things right, and that goes a long way to explain why NTT acquired them last year.

We got a good mix of executive roadmaps, customer insights and more focused breakout sessions. Overall, they gave the analysts a deeper understanding about their philosophy, culture and of course business strategy. They are very much a services business now, and have moved well past being a hardware reseller. There was a lot of talk about virtualization and the cloud, and based on what their customers are doing, this trend is very real. It's also much harder to do than it looks, and Dimension Data clearly has a good sense as to how they can help customers get there.

I really enjoy events where the execs are so accessible and comfortable sharing their plans with us. Being South-African, they also have an international viewpoint that's a nice change from the U.S.-based companies we spend so much time with. While we didn't hear that much about the NTT integration, they did explain the synergies, and it looks like this has been a good move for both parties.

I'll be writing up another piece about this event for the UCStrategies portal shortly, and that will naturally have more of a UC focus. Until then, I should add that Dimension Data shared their new branding with us, but it's not for public consumption until May 10. All I can say is that it looks good, but you'll have to wait a few days to see for yourself.

Next Stop - Boston and Dimension Data

I haven't travelled in a few months, and it's been great to be in one place for so long. That's about to change, and I have a number of trips coming the next 2-3 months.

Next up is my hometown, Boston, where I'm attending this year's analyst event for Dimension Data. As you may know, they were acquired late last year by NTT, so they're even more of a global player now. They're about as good as it gets in the systems integrator space, and am really looking forward to seeing their approach to selling communications and networking as part of the NTT organization.

Being an avid sports fan, it's great time to be there, so the rest of my attention will on the Bruins, Celtics and Red Sox. Busy, busy...

The Growing Role of Video in Business - Inc.com Article

A few weeks back, I was interviewed by Inc.com about a story they were doing on video, and how it's being used more now in the workplace - particularly as part of the hiring process. I couldn't agree more, and given the exposure I get with various vendors and service providers in the video space, we ended up chatting a long time.

It's a great topic, and I think we're just at the cusp for how video is going to become a primary communications mode in business setting. I could go on about this for a while, but I'll have to leave you just with the article for now. It's always great to get cited in major publications like this, and as you'll see, readers have made loads of comments already. Feel free to add your piece - you never know who's out there.

Renewable Energy Market Report - New Article

As you may know, our report on the U.S. Renewable Energy market was published recently. We continue to promote it in various ways, and an article we prepared is running today in Quirk's Marketing Research Review. As a long-time market research practitioner, I've been listed in their directory for ages, and they are one of the best resources serving that industry.

If you'd like a fresh take on what our report is about, I invite you to read the article - and no doubt, Quirk's will be happy too!

Something New - My UC Column with ADTRAN

My writing takes numerous forms and turns up in a variety of places. This week marked the beginning of a new series I've started with ADTRAN. I've been following them for a while now, and the market is starting to catch up with the inroads they're making in telecom - and most recently, Unified Communications.

To help build their mindshare in this space, I've just started a column on their recently launched blog portal - it's called think.share.lead. Their portal has two content streams for now - Broadband and Unified Communications. I'm the primary contributor for the UC stream, and my first post is running there now.

I'll be posting 1-2 times a week there, and as my initial contribution explains, these posts will cover the gamut on UC - but I won't be talking much about ADTRAN. They'll get their share of coverage like anyone else, but I'm there to provide industry perspective. More importantly, I'm there to stimulate dialog and help build community. So, you'll have lots of ways to be part of this, and as you'll see on the page, you can comment on my posts or share with other on their Facebook page, Twitter and elsewhere. See you there!

Flip's Flop - What UC Can Learn From Cisco

Cisco's abrupt shuttering of Flip was pretty newsy, as was their dropping back with Umi, and even more recently the market readiness news for Cius. There's a lot going on with Cisco lately, and in my worldview, there are some interesting implications for the Unified Communications space.

I've put my thoughts together about this for my April posting to the UCStrategies portal, and it's running there now. Whether you cheer good news or bad news for Cisco, you can't ignore them, and there's lots to consider here. By all means jump in, and share your take, esp in terms of where UC is going.

What are Nortel Customers Doing? Henry Dortmans Knows.

Blogging tends to go in streaks with me, and when I'm busy with projects, it's hard to post regularly.

Got an interesting item about what's been happening with all those Nortel customers out there. Avaya's acquisition of their telecom business is old news, but I have some current insights from long-time local colleague, Henry Dortmans.

Henry knows the Canadian telecom/IT market as well as anyone, and his perspectives are always right on. Like many others in this space, Henry has been wondering what's really going on with the Nortel customer base. His concern was that depending where you look, the storyline is very different. Avaya will tell you they've kept most of the installed base, while Nortel's other competitors will happily crow about how they've taken most of those customers away. Uh huh. When in doubt, leave it to Henry.

So, here's what he did. Henry sent out a simple one question survey to his database, which covers the Canadian market very well. He just published the results today in his widely-read monthly e-newsletter, On the Line. You have to subscribe to get the online content, so I'm just cutting/pasting his writeup for you here. If this space if of interest to you, I strongly suggest you subscribe (it's free)- here's the link.

With that, I'll leave you to read this below, and following that are my brief thoughts...

My Survey on Nortel System Users

Over the past year I've asked many, "What % of organizations have kept their Nortel (now Avaya) systems?" I got different answers, depending on who I asked. So, I surveyed end-users directly.

Promising anonymity, the question posed last month was:

"If you have a significant investment in Nortel enterprise systems (or had in the past two years), have you:
• A - Upgraded?
• B - Replaced with Avaya systems?
• C - Replaced with non-Avaya systems?
• D - Decided to wait?"

Based on 146 responses*:
• A - 25%
• B - 10%
• C - 20%
• D - 45%

I know that this is not a statistically valid survey but it's better than rumours. The key items? Almost half are still waiting to decide what to do; some had more than one answer; many provided interesting insights into their situation.

My thoughts...

Wow. Henry has a lot qualitative feedback to add color to the numbers, and you'll have to tap him for that. While the data isn't totally scientific, I think it's a pretty good barometer about what people are doing. With almost half sitting pat, that tells you not a lot business has shifted hands. Only 20% said they've gone to another vendor, so this is where Cisco, Mitel, Siemens, etc. get all happy.

On the other hand, 70% have either held tight or upgraded, so clearly the Nortel installed base is holding its own. Waving the Canadian flag, that's a testament to their enduring reputation as a quality vendor, and hopefully, Avaya will allow that to continue.

The bigger picture takeaway for me - and Henry - is that if given a choice, most people don't change. If their telecom system is working fine, there's a lot of inertia around doing something else. This plays into the broader theme of choice and confusion that has washed over the telecom landscape in recent years. The technology has gotten ahead of a lot of people, and it's a real challenge for enterprise IT leaders to make an informed - and financially sound - decision about which way to go. It's a big issue, and I'll keep writing about in the usual places. I hope you keep tabs on me, and if you're not doing the same with Henry, maybe his latest insights will get you to follow him as well.

Consumerization of IT - UCStrategies Podcast

We covered a pretty interesting topic on yesterday's UCStrategies podcast - the consumerization of IT. We all know how the personal experience with the Web, smartphones, social media, etc. has raised expectations about what's possible in the workplace, and we explored a few facets of this on the podcast. We tried to frame the discussion from the IT perspective, and as you can imagine, they're under all kinds of pressure these days, and the consumerization angle only adds to this.

So, it's there now for you to take in on the UCStrategies portal. You can simply listen to the podcast, or as usual, the transcript is there if that's easier. Either way, I hope you enjoy our comments, and yours are welcome any time.

Contact Centers and the Cloud

The cloud continues to be a big trend in communications, and contact centers are well along that path now. I've been writing about this recently in a few places, with the most recent being today on the UCStrategies portal.

Many of you know that I'm a regular contributor there, and this article actually kicks off a four part series on the topic. The next three pieces will be written by other UCS contributors, and if hosted contact centers are of interest, then you'll want to read them all. Hopefully you'll get started by reading my piece, and if that gets your juices going, join in and post a comment.

Renewable Energy Report Now on ResearchAndMarkets.com

As you may know, our report on the U.S. Renewable Energy Market was recently published, and we are pursuing various channels to build awareness and drive sales.

One of these channels is ResearchAndMarkets.com, which is the world's largest online distributor of market research reports. We're quite pleased to have this relationship in place, and information about our study has just been posted to their portal. It's not the only way you can buy our report, but it gives us reach well beyond our direct efforts.

M5 - Another Acquisition - Callfinity

M5 Networks just announced the acquistion of Callfinity this morning, and it looks like another small step forward in the much-expected consolidation of the hosted communications space.

This is actually a contact center play, and is very much in line with the trends I've recently started following via my column for Exony. I definitely think M5 has the right idea here, as hosted/managed contact center capabilities are starting to make a lot of sense as these technologies mature, as well as prove themselves on a large scale.

Callfinity is a different type of pickup for M5 than their previous deal, when they acquired Geckotech late last year. That was a similar business, and it simply allowed M5 to expand its customer base along with gaining a physical footprint in a new urban market - Chicago.

I've been following M5 for many years, and having turned 10 last year, they sure have come a long way. That's not to say that every hosted player needs to be around 10 years before they can start doing this, but M5 has earned their keep, and I have no doubt that their thinking around Callfinity is pretty sound, and is part of a well-planned growth path that will help re-define this space as it comes of age.

Skype's Take on the Changing Workplace

Some pretty interesting research that Skype has just released. They call this "The Living Workplace", and it explores how technology is changing how we work, how we view work, where we work, when we work, etc. No doubt, these things are all up for grabs, and research clearly shows how we're steadily moving away from telephony and email to the newer modes of IM, chat and of course, video. It's an exciting time if you're on the right side of the tech curve, but more challeging if you're not.

Most of the findings are pretty intuitive, and we're all living it, esp if you're from the Net generation. It's just nice to see it all pulled together and supported by substantive research. I'm not going to deconstruct and re-present other people's research here, so I'll just steer you to the source and you can draw your own conclusions. I've been doing market research for 25 years, so I certainly have my take on these things, but you won't see that here.

Anyhow, my main message is to draw kudos to Skype for undertaking this research. Sure, it plays well to their business model, but I'm sure you can see there's a much bigger story that all of us want to follow. To do that, exit stage left, and continue reading at Skype's Living Workplace website.

Contact Centers - When to Consider Shared Services

Here's another writing update. I've been doing regular research/writing lately in the contact center space, and the work is being featured on Exony's website.

My latest writeup is about shared services, a pretty interesting approach taken by large enterprises to manage what is usually a sprawling and unwieldy contact center environment. To get the full story, I welcome you to read it here. Comments, as always are welcome, as are suggestions for future analysis.