Google Voice - the Race to Zero Continues

Last week's news about Google Voice adds another chapter to the demise of voice as a revenue generator for carriers. The value of voice will always be high, but as the cost of delivering it over IP continues to fall, so do the prices. Google understands this as well as anyone, and this is yet another example of their ability to disrupt markets that are not in their native makeup.

I've added my thoughts in the latest Service Provider Views column on TMCnet, and it's running on their site now.

This must be a hot topic, as I've received an unusually high number of tweets and re-tweets on Twitter, and I haven't even run this post yet. The Web sure works in strange ways, but I certainly appreciate the attention and all the good words.

Demystifying Unified Communications - Focus Webinar - Register Now

From time to time I get invited to participate in various industry webinars, and the latest one is a half day event on UC with Focus.com. They call these Interactive Summits, and I'll be kicking this one off with a keynote presentation on the UC landscape. Following that will be a series of more specific presentations on varous aspects of UC, and all segments include an interactive component for live Q&A. The other presentations will be given by other colleagues from UCStrategies, so this will be a great showcase for the UCS view of UC, and I'm glad to be a part of that.

A half day is lot of time to devote to a virtual event, but it's free, so you have nothing to lose, even if you dip in and out of the presentations. The webinar runs Thursday, September 16, starting at 11am EST. I'm just doing my part here to get the word out, and you can get more details about the content and how to register here. Hope you can join us!

eZuce - New Name, New Hosted UC Solution for Enterprise

The marketer in me is always drawn companies with interesting names. There's more going on, though, with eZuce, and they think they have a better way for enterprises to go with hosted UC. They sure bring a strong pedigree, and we'll have to see how well the market takes to it.

Following a briefing with them, I've put my thoughts together for my monthly contribution to the UCStrategies portal. It just went live this morning, and you can read it here.

Focus Brief - More Thoughts on ShoreTel

Blogging has been streaky for me lately. Was in the U.S. on project work the past few days, so am just catching up here on some things.

My latest Brief on Focus.com provided some additional thoughts on ShoreTel. I posted about them here during their analyst/partner event a couple of weeks ago, but wanted to add a bit more wearing my Focus.com hat. The Brief is running on their site, and you can read it here. As always, comments are welcome.

Skype's IPO News - What Should Service Providers Do?

That's the title of my latest Service Provider Views column on TMCnet, and it's running now. Skype sure has had an interesting ride coming in and out of eBay, and now this news signals to the world that they're ready for prime time. There's a great growth story here for sure, but for a company with practically no marketing costs, it seems strange that they're not very profitable.

Of course, that can change quickly, even with a modest bump in any of their financial metrics. With such a huge user base, a few upticks in ARPU or conversion rates from free to paid will translate into healthy revenues and even healthier earnings.

Like Facebook, Skype's ultimate value is tied to monetizing their massive communities. This is the new-school build-it-and-they-will-come model, and if they can succeed financially, traditional service providers will have a lot to think about. I'm not alone in wondering if Skype's IPO is too early, or if the $100 million raise will be enough, but this sure sends a message to the telco market that Skype believes they are ready to compete with anybody.

New White Paper - M5 Networks and Hosted VoIP for Enterprises

Another White Paper I recently completed was just announced - this time from M5 Networks. Regular readers here will know that I've followed M5 for a long time, and recently attended their 10th anniversary bash in NYC.

They've been doing hosted VoIP pretty much from the beginning, and have matured to the point where the time - and their offerings - are now right for enterprises. I explored this further in the White Paper, which focuses on why enterprises should consider the benefits of hosted services. This may not be the right choice for all enterprises, but I did enough research to know that services like M5 make a lot of sense for the right situations.

M5 has just posted availability of the paper to their website, and you can download a copy by following the link and filling out the basic registration form. I think there's a great market opportunity here, and I'd love to hear your thoughts.

VoIP Security - Hot Topic - New White Paper

Finally digging out enough to get back to blogging. Lots to catch up on, and I'll start here. I recently completed a White Paper on VoIP security for a startup venture, InCharge Systems. It's a very interesting company, and they've taken a long, hard look at the range of issues around VoIP and SIP-based telephony - security, identity, authentication, toll fraud, etc.

We all know about the potential for these to become big problems, and it's a bit like the BP Gulf oil mess. If it's out of sight, it's out of mind - but when the system fails, the problem is huge and quickly spins out of control with no easy fix. InCharge Systems may be early to market with their solution, but having done the research, I can tell you it's on people's minds.

The White Paper was announced last week, and I'm doing my part here to be sure you know about it. You can access the paper from their website after filling out a short registration form, and I'm sure they'd love to hear from you. I'd also be happy to answer questions on a limited basis, so feel free to reach out.

Time Flies/Whassup?

It's been one of those weeks - summer doldrums, but also quite busy - too busy to blog. Don't know what it is, but ever since this Twitter thing started to take hold, blogging has dropped a step down in the pecking order. Twitter is great for getting the word out, but there's no content there - just headlines. That's why the blog is so important - this is where the content lives, and I basically just use Twitter to steer people to my posts or other items of interest.

I really don't have any news today, but we are going on a short family vacation, so there won't be any blogging the next few days for sure. Figured I'd better post something today just so you know I'm still here.

In short, here's what on my plate....

- just finishing up two white papers, both of which should be publicly available in the next week or so

- am about to start a new white paper for a company all of you know about, and that should be out there the next month or so

- am about to start co-publishing my insights/analysis/research with an analyst network most of you are familiar with - stay tuned

- I'm continuing to contribute to Focus.com, and am enjoying my role as an Adviser. I'll be featured on a couple of their upcoming virtual events, and you can read my latest Brief here.

- Am also still doing my bi-monthly Service Provider Views column on TMCnet, and a monthly contribution to the UCStrategies portal, so I'm not hard to find out there.

- on the smart grid front, our summit program is just about done - this really is a strong event, and the marketing/PR efforts are ramping up nicely now. If you haven't checked in on us lately, have a look. The Early Bird discount just expired, but there's lots of time still to make plans.

- our smart grid portal continues to zoom along. The content is as strong as ever, and we just passed the 2 million mark for monthly page views. Check it out - better yet, subscribe - it's free.

ShoreTel - Final Recap - UC Strategies Podcast

Time sure flies when you're busy. This week's UC Strategies podcast was focused on our recap and takeaways from last week's ShoreTel analyst/partner event. A number of UC Strategies colleagues were there, so this is by far the best set of collective insights you'll find anywhere about the latest on ShoreTel.

We did the podcast on Monday, but it just posted this afternoon to their portal. I've already shared my thoughts here on the blog, but was happy to add some others to the podcast. You can download the MP3 here, or simply read the transcript that's part of the post.

Metaswitch Newsletter Relaunch/Debating the Merits of Voicemail

Regular readers will know that I've been closely following Metaswitch for a long time. As companies reach critical mass, branding and messaging becomes more important. Metaswitch has been doing a great job with this on a few fronts, and today, they have another one I'd like to share with you.

They've just relaunched their e-newsletter today - it's called "Overheard - water cooler talk from the Metaswitch office". I kinda like the title - I know it's just a free newsletter, and most vendors have one - but it does catch your attention. Wearing my MBA Marketing hat, this is a good community-building tool. Being an indie, working from home, I'm constantly struck by how many people in this market work the same way as me. We have no water cooler to go to - that's why Facebook, Linked In, and of course Twitter are so popular. I'm just glad to see someone connect the dots here and use email as a channel to extend the water cooler beyond the physical office. We may not be reading about rumors or saucy gossip, but we all want to know what other people are doing, thinking, saying, etc.

I think it's a good read, and would encourage you to get it. Content-wise, I'm happy to say they've included me in one of the features - Hang Ups. It's a point-counterpoint debate between Martin Taylor and myself about the value of voicemail in today's world. I'm on the contrary side of the argument, and it sure makes you think about the utility of tools we've been using forever. The Internet is changing the communications experience more than we realize - whether that's a good thing is best discussed another time.

ShoreTel Conference - Final Thoughts

Following my highlight post about ShoreTel’s partner/analyst event last week, I just wanted to share some thoughts about the event and what they’re bringing to market. There were about 15 analysts, and it’s fair to say this was a first for most of us. ShoreTel hasn’t done much outreach like this, so we don’t have much to compare this against. A few of us were spoiled by Cisco C-Scape last month, but that’s a pretty hard act for anyone to follow. Let’s just say this event was on a more human scale, and it’s great that their execs were so willing and able to spend time with us.

CEO John Combs set the stage by talking about the “perfect storm” that bodes well for the company. He cited several stats showing this to be a growing market, especially for UC and contact centers. Supporting this is their product set, strong channel network and an industry leading low TCO. Every vendor will have its own spin on TCO, and nobody wants to be the highest, so you have to take this with a grain of salt. That said, with simplicity being a core theme of the conference, it’s not surprising to see their TCO to be so attractive.

You can draw your own conclusions about TCO, but their customer satisfaction metrics are hard to argue with. With my market research background, I put a lot of stock in this factor, especially when the data consistently rates them ahead of their peers – Cisco, Microsoft, Avaya and Mitel. Equally impressive is their absolute rating over time and how they’ve stayed at such a high level. In every quarter since Q4 2005, they’ve had a 90% or better rating, so they’ve clearly found the right balance with customers.

This is reflected in their strong sales growth, and being a public company, this shouldn’t be news by now. Sales have steadily grown from $19 million in 2004 to the current level of $148 million. Supporting this is a healthy win rate, which sees them succeeding on two out of every three opportunities.

It’s a strong growth story, but there is still work to be done. While the win rate is good, their consideration rate is the weak link. They explain this by saying ShoreTel is only being considered for 3 out of every 20 opportunities. That’s a pretty low rate, so you can imagine how their growth metrics would spike simply by doubling this. So long as they keep a high win rate, improving this metric will yield a very strong upside. I don’t think there were any financial analysts with us, but I have no doubt they will zone in on this one for its impact on the company’s valuation.

This consideration rate is driven by a more basic issue – they simply aren’t a household name like their bigger competitors. One of the key initiatives coming out of the conference was their commitment to investing in brand building. Given their strong growth story, this should be a fixable problem, especially when they seem to have so many happy customers willing and able to vouch for them. As noted later in the conference, it’s much better to have a great product and not be well known rather than be well known with a mediocre product.

Their strengths are in the right areas, and in my view, the weaknesses are largely within their control. Investing more money in marketing is no guarantee, of course, but seeing such a good vibe from both customers and channel partners, there are a lot of people rooting for them. I can vouch for that first hand via the many conversations I had there with resellers – both new ones and long term ShoreTel partners.

Over the two days we were there ShoreTel shared quite a bit more, and overall, I came away with a better understanding of what makes them successful, and a more positive outlook on their chances. In that regard, I’m sure they felt the same way about the analysts, who are probably better connected to ShoreTel than ever before. They spent a fair bit of time explaining their architecture and why it creates more simplicity for both resellers and customers. It’s an important part of the story, but I’ll leave that assessment to the more technical analysts in attendance. I should also mention that most of Day 2 was dedicated to the strategic roadmap – it was quite good, but under NDA, so let’s move on.

Beyond all the detail, the underlying theme of the event was summed up in their tagline “Beat Complexity”. It’s a good mantra, and it’s hard to argue against this. They provided some great examples of how various competitors have lots of complexity, while theirs is the opposite. Again, there’s room for subjectivity in defining “complexity”, but if you can persuade the marketplace that you’re “brilliantly simple” – another key tagline from the conference – you’re going to win more than you lose. Skype is still my all-time favorite example of simplicity and good technology trumping everything else, and I’m sure that lesson hasn’t been lost on ShoreTel.

Finally, I can’t help but wonder if “Beat Complexity” is code for “Beat Cisco”, making this a more subtle way to motivate resellers. After all, that’s the target audience of this event, and everyone knows that Cisco is top dog. ShoreTel is aiming high - why not? – and while Cisco may be better at branding, the takeaway from the conference would be that ShoreTel has a better product. Simplicity is part of that equation, and ShoreTel believes that’s what the market really needs. I think they’re right, and the proof will come over the next couple of quarters. In the past I haven’t followed their earnings calls that closely, but you can be sure I will be now.

ShoreTel Champion Partners Conference - Day 1

This my first ShoreTel analyst event, and it's been great so far. Lots to talk about, and that will come in a follow on post. There's a really good story, and it's great to hear about it first hand. Not sure who is more upbeat around here - ShoreTel or their channel partners. I'd say it's about even, so the overall vibe is very positive - much unlike the weather here in San Diego! Oh - and a whole lot of orange - it's not hard to know who works for ShoreTel around here.

Anyhow, I just have time to share a few photos from yesterday to give you a quick feel for what we're experiencing.

Richard Laible - this guy is funny - nice choice for the MC. And, as you can see - for better or worse - he's a great stand-in for a lean Alfred Hitchcock. Good eeeev-ening, ladies and gentlemen. Have you got that theme song going through your head now? Dah dunh, dah dunh nuh, dah dunh, dah dunh.....




Outgoing CEO John Combs. He's done a great job, and we heard about what they're looking for in a successor.




Don Girskis leadng a session with one of their newer partners, Unified Technologies - great example of how partners are succeeding with ShoreTel



IBM Foundation demo



Analyst-only session, led by Bernard Gutnick, along with key ShoreTel execs



Cisco's Hosted UC Solution - are Enterprises Ready?

My latest Service Provider Views column focuses on HUCS - Cisco's Hosted UC Solutions launch, which we were pre-briefed on at C-Scape. I've been wanting to add my take on this since then, and this column has been the right place to do that.

Rather than focus on the details of the solution, I'm more interested in the value proposition for enterprises, as well as the potential impact on the other players in this space. The article is running now on TMCnet, and you can read it here.

Will the Shoe Phone Make a Comeback?

My answer is definitely no, but now that I have you, I wanted to share a guest article that was posted today on The Mark. This is a Toronto-based online news/culture portal that I contribute to occasionally, and aside from my article, I'm happy to bring it to your attention. You don't have to be Canadian to enjoy it. Their content is far ranging, but always interesting, balanced and challenging. That's the kind of read I like, and I bet you do too.

I'm glad to be one of the voices here, and they asked me to write about a technology trend as part of a broader series titled Twelve Things That Will Be Obsolete in 10 Years. I've been writing about where telecom is going a fair bit lately, so this was a great chance for me to put on my predictor hat. I don't see my beloved Maxwell Smart's shoe phone in this world, but I don't think there will many telephones around by then either. If this gets you thinking, please give it a read, and let me know what you think!

Next Stop - San Diego - ShoreTel

I haven't been traveling much this year, but I have/had 3 trips out West during June and July. That's a lot for me, but after that, I'm done til the fall.

So, next week I'll be attending ShoreTel's analyst conference, which is part of their bigger partner event. This is my first ShoreTel analyst event, and I'm really looking forward to it, esp being out in San Diego. I've had opportunities to attend their events in the past, but the timing just never worked out.

ShoreTel's space has consolidated quite a bit, and while the big players keep getting bigger, they're hanging in there. Aside from the fact they are one of the few independents left, the company is performing quite well. Don't forget, they're public, and the markets haven't treated companies in this space very well lately. Last year around this time, the stock was touching $9, and it was recently about half of that. However, it's been steadily climbing back, and is now pushing up towards $6. I'm sure this upward trend reflects their continued strong performance, and by this time next week, I should be able to confirm that based on what we learn at their conference.

Why the Desk Phone will Disappear

That should get your attention, right? For some, this is inevitable - and for others, this may seem unthinkable. Well, read on, and make up your mind. Is the desk phone on the way out, or not going anywhere?

This is my latest Brief on Focus.com, and I hope you give it a read - then give us your thoughts. Thanks!

Cisco C-Scape/Cius Roundup - UCS Podcast

I've written about Cisco C-Scape and Cius a few times already, and have one more go-round for you.

As regular readers know, I participate on the UC Strategies weekly podcasts as time allows, and yesterday we had a group recap of C-Scape. So, for the Cisco and Cius followers out there, this is a deeper dive on our takeaways, and a broader set of views beyond my personal take.

The podcast has been posted now to their portal, and if that's too much bother, there's a full transcript of the discussion on the posting. Enjoy!

Cisco Cius - Another Look

Time sure flies when you're busy. Apologies - been so busy with project work, I just realized that I didn't post last week. Not sure if that's ever happened before.

As you may know, my industry analysis is being posted regularly in a few places these days, and most of it is a good proxy for what might have otherwise been written about here. Such are the economic realities of being an indie.

I'll resume that trend with my July contribution to the UC Strategies portal. This really is the go-to source for all things UC, and I'm glad to be associated with this group of industry experts. A few of them were with me at Cisco C-Scape at the end of June, and we all witnessed the surprise launch of Cius, Cisco's entry into the overheated tablet market.

I actually quite like the Cius, and while most of the buzz has long since passed, this was my time to post on the UCS portal. As usual, I'm weighing in with some thoughts that are more reflective than reactive, so there's nothing time sensitive here. However, I think I have a few ideas to add that I haven't seen yet, so if Cius is of interest, you may find this worth reading. Same goes for UC, since I'm trying to see where/how Cius fits into that conversation - which is why it's running on UC Strategies. It's posted there now, so give it a read when you can - thanks!

Cisco C-Scape - Highlights

It's been an intense day and a half at Cisco C-Scape, and am finally catching a moment to share some highlights. I'm going to be brief here - not just because I'm exhausted, but with all the Twitter activity taking place in near real-time, all the really good stuff has been out there for a while now.

The sessions here have been pretty much continuous, and we've had our share of updates on unified communications, collaboration, video and social media. No surprises there, but where it got more interesting was when they framed these things around the bigger picture themes, such as innovation, time to market, architectures to support the cloud, and "networked economies". Their mantra is best summed up by the VSE acronym - vision, strategy, execution.

There were a lot of forward-thinking ideas here, and while they may take time to become realized, Cisco is reaching way beyond making businesses more productive. The networked economy idea is far grander, where the intent is to leverage Cisco's network and cloud capabilities to help economies grow - by creating jobs, improving health care, making government more efficient, enablihg a rich classroom learning experience, etc.

Undoubtedly, the world needs these things, and Cisco believes the stars have lined up now for them to take on this mantle. Let's set aside the reality about how cash-strapped and nearly bankrupt most public institutions are these days - this is more a matter of will and vision than investing in cutting edge technology. If you don't dream big, these things will never happen, right?

When you hear John Chambers talk about Cisco's accomplishments in the past year, it's hard to argue against where they're making their big bets. He was very enthusiastic in sharing some metrics about Cisco's growth in a very difficult global economy - over 400 new products introduced, 707 patents applied for in the last quarter, over 5,000 CSR-1's sold, 3 major acquisitions (Tandberg, Starent, Flip), etc.

And then - just like that - they announced their new tablet, the Cius. That was news to most of news, and it sure looks good. Most people talk about it only as an enterprise device, but along the lines of Flip, I can see lots of consumer potential as well. Coming back to the big themes noted above, John Chambers had a much bigger message beyond the features and apps that Cius supports (and it's Android based - how's that for being open?). For him, Cius reflects their vision about architecture, and planning ahead for making many disparate tools and technologies work together on a common network framework.

For example, Cius is mobile - you can walk about with it, and using the dual cameras (on the front and the back), you can walk about to show things nearby to people at the other end who may be thousands of miles away. For video, Cius supports telepresence, so you can use it to join TP sessions remotely. It also will interface to a TV set, so you can share content with a larger group, such as a classroom. Of course, it supports all the social media tools for virtual sharing (including Quad, their enterprise social software platform), and can just as easily be used simply as a text reader. These are just a few examples to show how it brings together so much of what Cisco is doing in a single device and in a singular experience.

There was lots more on tap here, but one can only absorb so much in such a concentrated program. Aside from Cius, there would be two big takeaways for me. First is the new mantra about how "video is the new voice". That's a nice way of saying what Cisco has been focusing on lately. We've been hearing about video and collaboration a lot the past two years, and not surprisingly - sort of - there was hardly any mention of voice at C-Scape. Virtually no discussion about IP phones, VoIP, SIP, etc. It's all about collaboration, with video being the big driver. Sure, this serves Cisco well by driving more bandwidth intensive activity over the network, but the bigger picture really is about making businesses - and economies - more competitive by working with Cisco. As John Chambers said, Cisco wants to be your preferred business partner - and not just a technology supplier.

The second big idea is the cloud. Padmasree Warrior gave a strong keynote this afternoon about this, citing it as a $30 billion opportunity. I quite agree with her view that the key is becoming a "trusted cloud" for enterprises - and service providers (they talked quite a bit about that). This is one of the Geoffrey Moore-inspired "chasms" that John Chambers talked about, and when enterprises cross over, they are ready to place their trust in the cloud, and with that, all these good things are poised to happen.

Of course, we've survived this long without the cloud, but Cisco kept reminding us how complex our world is becoming, and that we need these capabilities to manage. They make a strong case for that, and if you buy in, then Cisco just may be your ticket to survival in the information economy.

My world certainly isn't this complex, but when you're talking about governments, global enterprises and the like, this line of thinking makes a lot more sense. Cisco is making big bets on big things, and it's fair to say there aren't any other companies out there who are willing and able to go down this path - or at least in this manner. Of course, measuring success on this scale will be tricky, but going in, the vision here is pretty strong. 2010 will be a hard act for Cisco to follow, so next time around for C-Scape, it sure will be interesting to hear about how it's all unfolding.


This is no ordinary keynote presentation or audience. There were only 100 analysts invited globally to attend, but they had over 12,000 partners and customers on hand -so they needed a pretty big space for this!



You'd think this was a Cirque du Soleil show. Pretty impressive opening fanfare. What else would you expect? Cisco - in Las Vegas....



John Chambers - larger than life, on screen and in person



The Cius (see-us)- just launched that very moment



This was neat. John Chambers and Marthin De Beer in a relaxed mode, presenting the winner of their I-Prize competition for innovation. They got 824 ideas from 156 countries, with a $250,000 prize. The winner - Team Rhinnovation - was based in Mexico, and are seen here via a live Telepresence session being congratulated by Cisco.