Return to Office and Agentic AI Realities - April 2025 Episode Transcription

Audio links for original podcast:

·       Here, on the dedicated Watch This Space website

·       Here, on the Podcast section of my J Arnold & Associates website

Transcription: Return to Office and Agentic AI Realities

Jon Arnold

Welcome to Watch This Space, the podcast about future of work. Every month, we bring you insider perspectives on how digital transformation, emerging tech, and generational change are shaping the future of work. We are two analog guys, finding the groove for all of this in today's digital world. I'm Jon Arnold, and these trends are my focus as a technology analyst in my company, J Arnold and Associates.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. I'm an independent consultant and strategist specializing in workplace technology, IoT, and security. My company's Integrative Technologies. Hello, everyone. Welcome to another Watch This Space. Hi, Jon. Always good to talk to you. How's your month been?

Jon Arnold

Pretty good, Chris. Yeah, same here. Good to be back. Good to be on another episode with you here. We're into the spring. It's still winter like in Toronto, but you know, you can feel the change out there with the longer days. And in our world, that also means longer forms of travel. So, I'm in the midst of a long run of kind of almost weekly going to different events in different places. I will cover off some of that as we go along here today. Otherwise, things have been going along as usual. And we've kind of finished off from Future Work Expo event from February but have moved on to many other things since then. And I know you have been busy too, out to a couple of things. And I think we'll probably go to that as our start off for today. And then I'll share my updates as well.

Chris’s Recap of Leesman Research Event

Chris Fine

Great, Jon, thanks. And yes, it is getting busy. I mean, I'm not anywhere in the league of travel that you have, but even I am hauling myself around a few times the next few months to various things. So that should be fun. Always good to get out and see new people and see familiar faces, learn about new things. But one thing that I did go to this week that was quite interesting, and it's a bit of a follow-up on your future of work, was an event in New York City sponsored by Leesman Index. And we've talked about Leesman many times.

They're one of the premier research houses on the workplace and workplace technology, worker attitudes, management views related to essentially the office. They always have interesting things to say. They have provided some data to you for your future work. And a couple of years ago – and we talked about this on Watch This Space - I worked with them on a project with HP Enterprise and a bespoke research report about future work and workplace technology. And that was just, they did a great job.

I always try to catch them when they're in town. What was interesting about this one, and they're doing a webinar about it, too, that you can Google and sign up for if anybody's interested, is Leesman traditionally, their claim to fame and base of power is an enormous database of extremely detailed data about worker surveys, about job satisfaction, essentially, but along many dimensions, which companies pay them to do. They then roll it up and evaluate against all their other data points that they have elsewhere into a kind of a common score of workplace quality, called the LMI, the Leesman Index. So, that's their core database.

But what they've been doing in the past few years, really since the pandemic, or it started in the middle of the pandemic, is to talk to senior people, too, mostly top real estate managers. And they have a group of about 135 of them now that they survey about twice a year. And so they are launching a new product called Focus Forward, which is really based on this data, which is fascinating. In fact, the HPE project is one of the first times they used that database when they only had a couple of surveys worth. It allows you to get a sense of what's top of mind for strategic level corporate management, and then compare that to what the workers are thinking. So that was the core subject.

They had three areas of discussion which were super interesting. One was about hybrid work and how, despite the fact that there are all these back to work mandates in the headlines, that that's actually not what's happening in most places. And they had a lot of data to back that up. And then the second one was workplace experience. And that was where there was actually the biggest disconnect between what the managers were thinking and what the workers were thinking about what's most important to them.

Then the third was the ongoing evolution of the real estate portfolio, which this audience or this survey audience is really able to talk about because they're in charge of it. I thought it was an interesting perspective. There were maybe 75 or 100 people there, all, you know, relatively senior real estate managers. It was it was a good program. And as usual, they did a good job. So that was a highlight of my week. But do you want me to tell you a couple of the things that they said?

Jon Arnold

We, as you say, we've, we, we've featured them, in various ways, over the years and certainly for the keynote that I did at Future Work Expo. I had some of their, I think it's called a Hybrid Future Report. I cited some of their research there. But it's always better when you're in person to see it face to face. So yeah, I'm keen to maybe hear a few takeaways that might have stood out for you. And certainly if you see that the sentiment is changing from, you know, say a year or so ago.

Chris Fine

Well, let me give you just a very few bullet points on those three areas. On hybrid work, it's still showing very strongly that most people are working in the office two to three days a week. And again, we always have to give our disclaimer that this is mostly what they would call knowledge workers, right? They're people who work in offices. They're not frontline responders. They're not people who are more operationally oriented. It's more knowledge workers in offices. But despite all the so-called back to work mandates, most companies have settled on some way of managing about two to three days a week for most people.

The corresponding data point for that was they asked the managers, you know, do you think your company has an established policy on this and what do you feel about it? And something like 65% of them said, well, it's a work in progress. It's not really done. We're not that happy necessarily with it, but this is what it is. So clearly, it hasn't really come to where the workplace is compelling enough or circumstances are in place to get people back in most places to the five-day so-called mandate that you see in all the headlines. So that was interesting to see what's actually going on, which is an ongoing story. And it'll be interesting to see if there's any catalyst that's really going to change that.

On the experience side, the one thing I wanted to mention was that they asked the managers basically why, what's the most important thing about the workplace? Like what purpose does it serve and what kind of work does it support and why is it important to people's job content? And the top topic or the top item cited, everybody got to cite three. The top one cited by the managers was collaboration, and that does not match what the workers are saying. The workers and the managers do agree that for collaboration, the workplace is pretty good to sit there in person. It's whatever you do, right?

But for the workers, the top priority and the top job content still is individual-focused work. For that, the home office or remote office just wins, hands down, over the workplace. So, you've got the majority of managers saying, well, we want to set this up for collaboration. But the majority of the surveyed workers saying, what we really need is individual-focused work. And I've seen a lot of anecdotal and other and some research data points that back this up, right?

That the way most offices are configured, it's actually not that good for individual focused work, even if you have to spend part of your day doing that, which everybody does almost. That's one of the reasons why you get people just going in and go for the meeting and then go home. Because in a lot of offices, particularly those that were built in the years before the pandemic, it's all open office stuff. And there aren't enough places where you can just go hide and think. That has to evolve and the managers understand that it has to evolve, but it's not there yet.

Finally on the real estate, they, you know, the general response on the managers is effectively what they call optimizing the portfolio, which effectively is reduction and it's still, it's less than it was the last couple of years, but still 20, 25% trying to cut out the cost. And what I thought was interesting with that - and I was actually going to follow up with Leesman about this - is I don't think it's all just reducing.

I think some of it is swapping into newer space, at least in markets like New York, where there's a lot of newer buildings where they have great offices in them. So I think some of this we're reducing space may be partly offset by going into new space. Those were some of the biggies, but that meant that made for a pretty interesting afternoon and there was a lot of lively discussion about it.

Jon Arnold

Wish I was there.

Chris Fine

Nobody disagreed, really, by the way.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. Yeah. And were there any like geographic trends of note?

Chris Fine

Yes. Somebody asked about that. And Leesman said that, yes, it does vary. It varies by geography and factors which they didn't really discuss here, but they do analyze, like commuting. How easy is it to get to the office? How near do you live? And also, what kind of space do you have? But one of the things that came out of the discussion was interesting. There's kind of a perception out there that young people are going to flock back to the office because they're living in small apartments, they have roommates, etc., etc.

That has not proven to be the case as much as people thought it was going to be, because they'll just go work anywhere. They don't have to come to the office necessarily, right? Their workflow laptops or phones or tablets or all of the above. You can go to any kind of a cafe or, you know, a temporary workspace or even the lobby of a hotel or your roof deck or wherever it is you want to work.

A lot of buildings, a lot of apartment buildings, at least in New York, but also the newer ones in a lot of other cities have some lounges and amenity space where you can work. Just the fact that you live in a small apartment is not necessarily driving you back to work. So there was a good bit of back and forth about demographics and geographics and not so much about differences in industry, which we covered in the HPE study and bigger Leesman studies do that. But yes, there was some of that. And it's always interesting to look at the variation.

Jon Arnold

And I know we could spend a lot more time on this stuff. And we've talked about also a few times the role of third spaces that give that balance, because not everyone can work from home. And especially, I'm sure, in Asian markets where people live in very tight quarters, typically just not conducive to that kind of thing.

Chris Fine

Yeah, and I think what's changed - and maybe we leave it at that - but what's changed, I took this away, I'm not sure, I would have to look back at the data to see how compelling it is, but I felt that there was something of a decline in company-provided third spaces versus just upgrading the workplace itself, the office itself, and then letting people either be there or at home. I felt that it was a slight decline in that. So that was interesting.

Jon’s Recap of Enterprise Connect

Jon Arnold

Well, that's great. So we'll go from New York to Orlando.

Chris Fine

Yes, yes, we had a big event. So let's take it away.

Jon Arnold

Short hop, same time zone, which I'll be happy about. And so I had, so there were actually two important events last week, but I could only do one of them in real time. So that is Enterprise Connect, which I typically call the Super Bowl event of enterprise communications. And it's been running a very long time, and much like IT Expo, it has been there kind of like almost forever. This is the biggest and most important event for certainly the tier one vendors, the Microsofts and Zooms and Ciscos of the world.

This is where the community does the most in-depth gathering for the four days that we're there. It is a show that started out, if you don't know folks, basically as a telephony show for the PBX. It used to be called VoiceCon, and it was very much about voice communications. And at the time, telephony was defined by the PBX. And obviously, since then, it's evolved with a few concentric circles around cloud and unified communications and now UCaaS. And yeah, the word you mentioned earlier, Chris, about collaboration. This is what drives a lot of the industry right now. In more recent times, the show has also taken on a focus for the contact center customer experience space, in part because the UCaaS space has become fairly mature in the sense that the leading vendors are well-established, and Microsoft in particular with Teams is very dominant.

The sector is really not doing a lot that's different other than becoming more AI focused. The growth really in the enterprise world for these technologies has been the contact center for a couple of years now because that's a bigger problem set that has more immediate needs and implications. This show has kind of been forced to add that element to the programming mix, and it's making it a little more blurry as what the focus of the show really is. But it's still a must be, must do, must be seen at event for the major players in the space. That extends, of course, to the partners, and extends to us in the analyst community. Ideally, it extends to the buyers who should be flocking to shows like this to help drive their decision-making. But that's turned out to be a bit of a challenge, Chris. The buyers aren't coming like they used to. Really? Wow. Yeah, and we could spend a lot of time maybe speculating on why that is.

But shows like this that are very much driven by the traffic on the show floor, that's a big part of the recipe. There's a lot of education needed in this marketplace, and that's where the real value of this event, I think, comes in because of all the sessions, mostly run by the vendors, but also us in the analyst community. We're, you know, speaking on a lot of these and leading a lot of the panels. But yeah, a lot to be learned, and so much is changing, as we know, especially through the AI lens. It's just every week to something new and different. And it's a pretty big treadmill to kind of keep on top of.

The event does a good job of, showcasing these technologies, but it's a little frustrating, I think, for the, certainly the exhibitors who spend a lot of money to be there hoping to find new customers. It's become more challenging to bring those customers out. So that's a high level take on the show itself. I mentioned, Chris, that, the UCaaS space has become fairly, mature is a bit of a misleading word, but, the vendors are established, the product offering is well understood, and a lot of the vendors have very similar type of offerings. There wasn't a lot of excitement in terms of breakthroughs or innovations in the UCaaS space and collaboration space. The buzz was mostly about, you know, yes, predictably AI and in particular, agentic AI, which I've been tapping as one of the big trends of 2025. And for better or worse, Chris, and I'll let you have your say on this in a second, because I think we're like-minded here.

You know, the excitement around AI is everyone wants to be in, nobody wants to miss out. But when it's a vendor-led phenomenon, which it typically is, there's a lot of focus on the newest, the latest, the greatest. You got to have it and you got to have it now. But yet when you start talking about these new generations of AI, namely agentic AI, but also generative AI, It's hard to put a fence around this to define what it really is, what's the real business benefit of this, how does it actually work? And so there's a risk of just adding another acronym to the mix here and making this space a little less appealing in the sense of, geez, there's just so much going on. I don't even know where to start.

Chris Fine

I guess one place you could start, and I'm kind of just thinking about this in real time, is you could look at use cases where you could argue that if properly implemented, AI, agentic or otherwise, would really do a better job. Right. Like, is there anything where that's true? What, you know, versus a versus an agent versus a human agent? And how many, you know, you could, the thing that comes to mind is probably routine kind of queries.

But my experience just as a consumer, which of course may or may not be typical, is that they're not quite there yet. They're getting there, but a lot, there's an awful lot of times when I end up having to do the equivalent of press zero to talk to an actual person, like trying to get through a telephone tree, you know? I don't know if that's a good comparison. So it feels like it's making progress, and sometimes you have encounters that are good, but I feel like it has a way to go. I don't know if that matches your thinking.

How Agentic AI is Impacting the Contact Center

 Jon Arnold  

Yeah, well, the idea of where to go is challenging because, yes, when it's well-defined, agentic AI applications can do those kind of things, as you say, but not as seamlessly as we would like to think or what we expect as humans who are used to talking to humans when doing customer service. These capabilities are evolving quickly; I will say that. There are some vendors who have some very good real-world, you know, proof points to show where it's being used and how it's making life easier in the contact center and better for the customer. So, the possibilities are there. But yes, as you say, the routine inquiries are kind of the low-hanging fruit for this right now.

The vendors are really sending a strong message that Agentic can be so much more. The big difference here with what makes Agentic interesting is the ability for a virtual agent to handle an inquiry end to end without human supervision, not just to do checkbox kind of, you know, tasks, but to actually behave like a human in terms of using reasoning. That's a hot button term that we're hearing a lot now, that term reasoning, you're going to hear that a lot in the vendor messaging now to basically present the notion that these virtual agents driven by AI are now capable of using logic and building on customer history and human behavior. They're able to draw conclusions that are ideally things that maybe customers weren't expecting or haven't thought about and make sense for them.

On the times when it's right, it is very good. But of course, it's not always that way. So the trust factor here, of course, is a long way to go on that still. But it's clear that this is where the ship is heading, right? This is where all the vendors have glommed on in a very short period of time to say, we believe that AI is good enough that it can handle problem solving at this kind of human-like level where they can draw conclusions, make decisions, based on these inputs. And it does sound a little, a little big brotherish for sure.

When the rules are well established and the guardrails are there, yes, under the right conditions, conditions, agentic AI can be a very good thing in the contact center, but also extended further out, not just there, but in the workplace, right? We're having individual workers having their own virtual assistants that have a persona that basically the worker creates and then dispatches to go out and execute certain tasks. That shows a lot of promise for kind of taking collaboration to a new level where it's more AI first rather than just AI assisted. But yeah, Chris, there's a lot of aspiration here, but we're all trying to get our heads around, you know, is this what we really want? Is this what the workplace is really going to become? And how are we going to know that this is the right thing to do until we try it?

Chris Fine

Yeah, I don't think we know. I sometimes think, and I'd be interested in your view on this, that maybe the underlying goal that's not necessarily articulated, one of the best managers I ever had used to say the widely known but seldom articulated fact, is that really what businesses may be looking for is the ability to support large volume, relatively low to middle quality interactions without people involved and just customers like it or lump it, you know? So I think of things like, you know, dealing with many institutions you could think of, you know, the post office, I don't wanna pick on them specifically 'cause they have some good people, and Lord knows they get enough abuse.

But you know, how, like, are they gonna spend the money to have high quality interactions at customer support - versus just being able to handle the quantity of interactions with lower quality, and that's just the way it is. Sometimes I think that's where it's going, where the kind of intuitive support that you get from a real human being who's really trained, that just doesn't scale.

You can't find enough agents who you're going to pay what they pay, who are really that way, so why wouldn't you mechanize it? Maybe that's where it's going, I think. If they could find a way to make it intuitive and reasoning and logic and really provide a higher level of support, then I think some organizations would do that. But I'm not sure that's the core of it. Do you see what I'm saying?

Jon Arnold

Yeah. To me, it reflects this kind of silver bullet mentality around AI being the solution to a lot of our problems. We're putting a lot of faith in it as the future, and there's no doubt that, that's where a lot of people want to see things go. And it's got a feeling now, maybe more so than last year, I would say that it's kind of inevitable that, every vendor is becoming an AI first story, and that's understandable. It doesn't diminish the importance of human interaction in the mix. And that's kind of an important sub-theme to all this, that they're very much aware that we still have to keep the human touch in the picture here.

Where this goes, the market will decide ultimately, right, how much of this they're going to actually pay for and deploy. But, when you talk to the vendors, who are way ahead of where the customers are typically willing and able to deploy, the capabilities that they have are pretty impressive, that they've really leveraged a lot of these tools. Because the thing with AI too, it's very important kind of underlying theme here is that because AI has the ability to almost like train itself because it draws from all the data and just processes things so much faster than humans can, the ability to drive innovation is just at a whole other level now to do it faster and cheaper.

That opens the door for a lot more new capabilities that we just didn't have. I briefed with several of the vendors there – a notable one, Chris, was a brief I had with Google about their whole AI story, primarily in CX for contact center. What they are seeing in the market is what customers are asking for is they want, they're almost leading with the inquiry about “how can we make AI work for us”? Where are the applications that will make us more automated and more AI-based? In particular, they want to leverage generative AI because it's a way to automate a lot of the communication and the responses that come during the customer service experience.

What they're looking for is basically technology partners who are very much AI first, rather than being customer service or contact center first. In other words, when you think about companies that are, very much out of the AI world, it's companies like Google, right, who are not by nature contact center vendors. When you look at the established players in the contact center space, right, that's how they started. AI has come second. It's come later into the game.

Chris Fine

Right. We're trying to get it to imitate the old model rather than say, if we're starting with something new, what would we do?

Jon Arnold

Yeah. And if this is where buyers are seeing value and are willing to put their money, this actually puts Google, you know, I don't know who else is like this, but certainly puts them in a very good position to really become very credible players in the space. If that's what's going to define value, who does it better than them? So that was a very interesting kind of, I don't know, takeaway for me that I wouldn't have thought of Google that way before. But if this is where the market is going, this tells you what's changing in terms of what constitutes a good buying decision.

Chris Fine

Yeah, and I, you know, I do think we're going to get there because it's inevitable, right, to make the economics of it and the technology power are advancing. so rapidly that it is going to end up powering a lot of things. And, you know, to be honest, Jon, I think if you talk to end consumers or end users of CX, right, whether they be business or individual consumer, that, you know, they would welcome or many people would welcome a method or approach, whether it was mechanistic or not, that just gave you better support. Right. Like if you could prove that it did, if you could, if your customer sat scores really went up and the scores on the interactions really went up, then I think the end customers would support that, don't you?

Jon Arnold

Yes. What makes this space so fascinating to me is that, you know, there's a gap between the buyers and the sellers. And the technology is moving faster than in terms of AI. It's moving faster than anybody is able to really manage. And there's this kind of Pollyanna-ish set of outcomes that people want from this, and they want it as soon as possible. One of the overriding things I see here that I'd be a little worried about is because it's becoming available so quickly, it will be, could become commoditized very quickly. In other words, that like when you talk about things like large language models, everyone has access to this technology now and the cost curves are coming down as you'd expect.

So, it's becoming, a harder thing to differentiate on, much like how we've seen UCaaS become commodified. There is a risk here that this is moving along so quickly that as the costs come down, it will be kind of almost like table stakes for everybody to have and be harder to differentiate on it. I think this just speaks to the need to fundamentally, you know, rethink what AI should do for you because the easy solution is to look for cost savings and automation. But the transformative potential here is a bigger story. Related to that is who you're selling it to, right? Because AI, when you start thinking about contact center, it's not a point solution.

I mean, every line of business in an organization is looking at AI in one way or another. And so decisions around this for one thing, like customer service, it's hard to do this or shouldn't be done in a bubble as isolated from everything else in the organization. This is where, you know, AI strategy comes into the picture of saying, well, yes, we know what the technology can do, but bigger picture, where does it fit to the overall priorities to make the organization itself, you know, more effective, more agile, you know, more responsive to changing you know, changing environment.

Chris Fine

Yeah, I haven't seen the absolute killer app yet, but I see it closing in on a bunch of them that could happen. I don't know yet. But, you know, you mentioned Google, right? So Google is applying AI all the time, every day. I don't know if you every time you do a search, the first thing you get back is AI generated. And it's not useless. But I, you know, I wanted to mention with regard to collaboration, you're right. It's becoming, the word is consolidated rather than commoditized, right? Because it's just consolidated around some huge vendors who give a lot of it away as part of sort of a broader enterprise license or what you're paying for something else and you get this thrown in some, you know, not the equipment itself necessarily, but like the service.

I think having said that about the workplace and the disconnect with collaboration, it feels like organizations still really have to invest in this. And better technology does have an opportunity because you just can't avoid it, right? I mean, even if people are not always in the office, even if people are in different places, and even if there's a different culture or an organization's in a different type of business, don't you think that this is just kind of table stakes? It needs to get better than it is in many places, the collaboration facilities. Despite all of its woes that you mentioned, don't you think it's still an area of investment that enterprises have to do?

Thoughts on Cognigy and Agentic AI

Jon Arnold 

Yeah. And that's the operative word, I think, is have to, because it's just moving so quickly. Even though the benefits aren't earth shaking, everyone can see the potential. The last thing you want to be doing is being the last in line. So, I mentioned, Google was a good example. I briefed with several other companies like Cisco and NiCE along the way here. Oh, sorry. The other ones I'm thinking of would be like Cognigy. So, Google, aside from them, I did meet with several other vendors at the show and getting their updates on things. Companies like Zoom and Cisco, Cognigy, there's quite a few and they're all doing really good work in this space.

There's no doubt that the capabilities are pretty, you know, market ready. They're not going to do everything for you. But just like you say, as enterprises need to invest in AI, obviously the vendors are doing it already because they do see the potential here for where it's going to go. When you start thinking about, things that were like, seem like, magic just a year ago, like, real time translation and the meeting summaries, they've all kind of become standard features now, which are all have a lot of value for sure. But, rising above this, though, I mentioned like an AI strategy thing.

Companies like NiCE are already thinking along these lines. And the narrative that they're using, we're going to see more of this. They're talking more about orchestration. That's going to be a big theme I think you'll see as people start to try to tie all these pieces together. In other words, whether it's collaboration in the office or customer service in the contact center, AI is touching so many pieces now that to pull it all together and really extract distinct value for a particular customer or particular worker on a project team, the AI pieces have to be able to work across multiple systems, multiple touch points, multiple data sets and knowledge bases, and then make kind of pull it all together and make it relevant, kind of almost in real time for the end user, for the person who's going to be using this information and providing kind of digital assist or this co-pilot idea of being by your side along the way to help you.

If you're trying to utilize all this information and you might miss a few pieces, the digital assistant right by your side will bring that into the conversation. This is kind of part of how the orchestration affects everything from like before you have to need it to when you need it until after once you've already used it, how you kind of follow up on maybe next steps, right? All the things that flow from that, whether it's for yourself or other members of a team. This is a more strategic kind of look at the technology.

Just to close out, Chris, I did want to pivot just briefly to another event I was at. I was at Cognigy's Nexus 2025 event in Dusseldorf, an event I was at last year as well. There aren't too many analysts who are getting to this event, but I'm one of them. When you see a vendor who's really laser focused on conversational AI, agentic AI, and also to see what they're doing with real customers, it's a real good validation of the kind of success you can have with AI. Rather than just aspirational stuff or what it could do, a company like Cognigy, which to me is kind of at the front of the line for a lot of these things, demonstrating their ability to automate processes and interactions both with assistance to live agents, but also agentically automating a whole process end to end.

They had some really great proof points from pretty big name customers across many verticals that are getting, you know, tangible outcomes, tangible benefits, and measurable impact on the whole process, whether you pick a particular step in the customer journey or the net impact overall to operations. It was a very good front row seat to see what it looks like when it's working. And the rest of the world still has to catch up to a lot of this stuff, but definitely a company to watch for where this agentic stuff is going.

And also, Chris, to be fair, in the EU, I think they might be a little further ahead in some of these applications in terms of being willing and able to deploy some of these capabilities because I haven't seen this level of integration with these technologies as much in the US yet. It's coming for sure. But the proof points, I'm seeing more evidence of it there than over here directly in the US.

Chris Fine

Well, it sounds like it was a good month. Glad we had a chance to talk about the AI. I'm sure we'll talk more. It sounds like things are rapidly improving, and so it's going to be a question of who deploys it and just it makes such a difference that it gets in all the headlines and that becomes a new standard. Maybe that'll happen soon.

Jon Arnold

I think so. Yeah, I do. And I'm not trying to undermine what's happening in the US, because there are great things happening here. But I just see less evidence of really tangible results so far, or maybe just that the vendors aren't telling the stories enough. But wherever it's happening, it's happening. And I think that's the main, if there's going to be one of these watch this space takeaways for the listeners today is that it is a real thing. By the time we even just do the next episode, there'll be more success points to validate where this is going. I think that's a good kind of wrap up for the month. Certainly the Leesman stuff, Chris, is really important because the workspace is where these tools get used, right?

Chris Fine

Well, it's always good to see research data on people who are actual stakeholders. You know, sometimes you and I get very focused on vendors, but it's nice to see some data that's about, you know, people who are kind of on the other end of all this stuff. We're trying to manage it, right.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. As you say about a killer app, you know, we don't quite have that yet, but I think that will emerge. You know, we're still very much in an experimental stage with this stuff. And the only concern, of course, is if the results really get tepid and we just don't see much financial benefit from this stuff, that the appetite might wane. But, I'm not seeing that yet. There's good reasons to be pushing back in terms of guardrails, et cetera, in the marketplace. But the overall, you know, the overall sentiment is pretty clear. You know, this is where it's going and you got to be with it, not without it.

Chris Fine

I mean, if history is any judge, then mechanization and automation usually ultimately wins. You know, it gets overhyped at first. It's the old hype cycle, but it finds its place, right?

Jon Arnold

Yeah, I think that's a good way to look at it. And coming from the analog world, I think we understand that pretty well.

Chris Fine

Exactly. Comparable, I was thinking, is analog equipment, you know, like if you're trying to play records or something, you would always try to get the mechanism more precise and everything else. Whereas what they did with DVD players is they actually made them cheaper and cheaper, but they worked because they put more software in the chips to understand what the errors were that the cheap mechanisms would encounter. And they put more redundant data on the disk so that it didn't matter if it's had reading errors, you wouldn't see it on the picture.

So, you know, that was a case where rethinking the problem and mechanization and automation took over, right, versus the fundamental precision or quality of the equipment. And If you have the ability to process enough statistical data and large input data sets, you know, maybe it's similar, right? You see where all the patterns are if you're in AI and you realize what you actually need to focus on. I think that's what they're aiming for, right?

When you have like a problem set with a huge amount of data, can the software, can the systems go in and say, well, you know what, this is what's relevant. And it doesn't necessarily mean you have to do this better, you just have to call attention to the right things. I don't know if that makes any sense, but that's my kind of parting thought for today.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, I'm with you on that, Chris. So, you know, analog has its place and more importantly to us, I think it's the way of thinking about things that leads to the value that digital solutions ultimately bring. Because you got to, everything starts with a mechanical or mechanized piece. And then once you automate it, then you can scale to get the results the way, automation can provide. And I think that's being applied now to the workplace and the processes around customer service, et cetera. And, you know, of course, the trick is to keep the human element in there. So far it is. And let's just hope it stays that way.

Chris Fine

Definitely.

Jon Arnold

Okay, so that's time for today, folks. And we'd like to thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed our podcast here and that you'll continue with us as we explore the future of work on Watch This Space. You can access all of our episodes at www.watchthisspace.tech, or wherever you subscribe to your podcasts. And if you like what you're hearing, we'd love it if you left a review or a rating. And if you have suggestions for future episodes, we're all ears. And with that, I'm Jon Arnold.

Chris Fine

I'm Chris Fine. Thanks again, everyone, for listening to another episode. And we will speak to you next month with another edition of Watch This Space.

Companies mentioned:

Cisco, Cognigy, Google, Leesman, Microsoft, NiCE, Zoom

Future of Work Expo Review - March 2025 Episode Transcription

Audio links for original podcast:

·       Here, on the dedicated Watch This Space website

·       Here, on the Podcast section of my J Arnold & Associates website

Transcription: Future of Work Expo Review

Jon Arnold

Welcome to Watch This Space, the podcast about future of work. Every month, we bring you insider perspectives on how digital transformation, emerging tech, and generational change are shaping the future of work. We are two analog guys finding the groove for all of this in today's digital world. I'm Jon Arnold, and these trends are my focus as an independent tech analyst in my company, J Arnold and Associates.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. I'm an independent consultant and strategist specializing in workplace technology, IoT, and security. My company is Integrative Technologies. Hi, everyone. Welcome to another Watch This Space. Hi, Jon. Great to be with you again. I actually realized that I found the scrap of paper that had my little intro script there. I'm really lucky. I kind of knew where it was after the big move this month, you know?

Jon Arnold

You moved out and up. 38 stories up, right?

Chris Fine

Moved into the city, yeah. The empty nesters.

Jon Arnold

Wow, well, this is something we're all looking forward to at some point, folks. It's going from the big house to a smaller space is a whole other thing. But the upside is you're moving from a sleepy suburb to midtown Manhattan. It's pretty exciting.

Future of Work Expo Recap

Chris Fine

Yeah, thanks. It's good. But I got my office set up finally. You know, most of the boxes are unpacked, so that's good. But anyway, big news in Jon Arnold land, right? Because you just came back from your showcase Future of Work, which I was very sorry to miss this here, but hope I get invited back because I know it's always a terrific program. So, I think today you really ought to be the focus because we're dying to hear what you the takeaways from this. So, kick it off.

Jon Arnold

Well, okay. Thank you. Thank you, Chris. And yeah, right off the top, of course, yeah, your move had to happen. So unfortunately, it wasn't going to be able to work for you to get there. So next year is next year, and you will definitely be settled by then. Unless, of course, you choose to move again. But I don’t see that.

Chris Fine

I can't face it, Jon. I can't. I literally can't think about that. And besides, even so, I'm not going to miss two in a row.

Jon Arnold

No, there you go. Your vinyl wouldn't be happy. It doesn't travel well, right?

Chris Fine

It sure is heavy, I'll tell you that.

Jon Arnold

Oh, digital folks, you have no idea what we're talking about. But yes, we love our vinyl, but boy, a milk crate does weigh a lot. Yes, it's a lot of schlepping.

Chris Fine

Yes, well, what are you going to do?

Jon Arnold

Exactly. What are you going to do? Life goes on.

Chris Fine

I want to have at least my core vinyl with me, wherever it is.

Jon Arnold

Wherever it is, because it's still the best. Anyways, yes, we digress a lot here.

Chris Fine

Yes, I know we can't. There's a lot to cover here. So, let's not digress anymore.

Jon Arnold

Okay. All right. So here we are. The Future of Work Expo event is an annual show, and it runs in February, usually the second week. And if you don't know by now, it's part of the IT Expo, which is run by the folks at TMC, Technology Marketing Corp, led by Rich Tehrani and his team. And I've been doing things with them for 20, 25 years. So very familiar group and very loyal group. It's mostly the same people. And they continue to run their IT Expo big tent Show. It's going strong as ever. And within that kind of milieu, they support these sub-events, these specialty events. And mine is one of them, called Future of Work Expo, where I partner with TMC to put the program together and bring an audience to the floor and to the show.

It's a pretty stable format, Chris, you've been with me on this for quite a while now. And I think we have a good setup to the way we do it. The format for this particular show is moderated panel sessions. For this year, we concentrated all the tracks into a two-day period, the Tuesday and the Wednesday. And then the Thursday was, we had also opportunities to present on the show floor. They have these theaters that are set up there, and I did my keynote talk on the show floor on the Thursday. So, I got to do that one two times.

The kind of draw for this event, for those who've never been - and there's a reason why I'm saying that in a second, is really, Chris, there's two reasons. One is because it's a big tech show and it's mostly a trade show. So, it's a lot about the buyers and the sellers generating traffic on the show floor, show, you know, the vendors showing what they have and the customers and partners coming to see what's on tap. And around that, yes, there are all the programs of the content and mine being one of them. It's a pretty good mix. I'd rather we had more time to do sessions, but that's how they run their show. And you know, the second draw for folks like us, Chris, is it's Florida in February. I mean, why wouldn't you want to be in Florida?

Chris Fine

It's always good. It's nice, nice weather, right?

Jon Arnold

Yeah, right. It it's You know, I wouldn't want to do this show there in August, but this time of year, yeah. And of course, the week I go is the week we get hit with a giant blizzard in Toronto, which we haven't had this kind of snow in at least 10 years. And it's old school snow, folks. You don't want a piece of it, but it took me six hours to shovel up my house when I got home, so I paid for it later.

Chris Fine

Oh, man. But you're all good now.

Jon Arnold

All good. And you don't care. You don't have to shovel anymore. So, you're up in the sky and different world, right?

Chris Fine

No, that's a bit harsh. I do care. I don't want you to hurt yourself.

Jon Arnold

No, not me, but you don't have to worry about snow shoveling.

Chris Fine

Not as much, certainly. Yes.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. Well, good.

Chris Fine

I put in my ears, Jon. I put in my ears shoveling.

Jon Arnold

Exactly. Folks, we don't do everything forever. Sometimes change is necessary and generally always good. Okay, so that's the backdrop to the show. And maybe before I go on a little bit more about what we actually did there, maybe you could maybe add some color to what you have kind of seen over the past few years in terms of the kind of audience that we have and the vibe?

Chris Fine

Yeah, well, I'm happy to. Jon, he's a relatively modest fellow, but he does put together a great program. with lots of good speakers who come to give various perspectives over a couple of days and the venue is pretty comfortable. The format of the of the panels is really good because you get a lot of extemporaneous discussion. It's not you don't get killed with slides. And it isn't all a vendor fest either. Jon always gets perspectives that are not just people trying to sell things, although the vendors do come and they do a good job. Jon keeps it pretty tight about no real selling. You have to talk more about the concepts that you're involved with and sort of the markets that you address.

And I would say the other thing about the show, which I always enjoy, is that there's really a lot of shows if you're interested. For example, I always focus on IoT, so there's a good IoT program there. It's pretty well moderated and organized. Similarly, there are vendors out on the show floor that are in that space, sensors, etc. So, I find it to be pretty a pretty worthwhile event. And if you're interested in the future of work and different perspectives on that and some of the technologies around that, I would say Jon's program is good to go to and I always enjoy participating in it.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, very good, and thanks for the good words. It's always good to hear. As you say, Chris, being an analyst, you know, that's my stock and trade of having the relationships with a lot of the vendors and they seem to be more than happy to come and say their piece. Absolutely, you know, I think the secret sauce is bringing in these, as I say, other voices that you wouldn't normally see at tech events. Certainly, drawing from the academic community, sometimes a government agency coming out to speak, and also, you know, consultants, people with specialized expertise. So, we try to keep that blend going. Also, companies that are not in the core area of what we do, they might be kind of peripheral businesses to communications technology, so it makes for a pretty rich mix of companies that we know and companies that we don't know. That way, as you say, we keep it, not totally vendor neutral, but certainly not vendor heavy. And there's plenty of room there for new ideas.

To be fair, a couple of things on this. Yes, we had some pretty, household name type of companies with speakers on panels. For example, we had companies like Nice, Zoom, HP, Cognigy, Verint, Mitel, Jabra, and I'm sure a few others will come to mind as we go along, Chris, but certainly leaders in the industry getting some of their people to come out and speak. CDW was another good one. and others from communities that we wouldn't be as familiar with.

Anyway, it's a good mix, a good healthy mix of people. I should also mention when I started off talking about the TMC relationship and how they run this show in support of our future work event, as you know, our podcast here has a heavy focus on future of work. So, to kind of support and align all of that.

We do have, I should mention, that TMC is also a media sponsor of this podcast. This is kind of a way for us to put a spotlight on them and they in turn socialize this podcast in their broader ecosystem of readers. It's kind of a good trade there and keeps our podcast to the regular reach that we generate organically, but also to theirs. That works out well.

I'll get your take on this in a sec too, Chris, is what does future of work mean now in 2025, right? This is the eighth year I've been chairing this event with developing the programming, and a lot of the core themes, Chris, as they're fairly steady, like we talk a lot about things like cybersecurity, the role of IT, the role of the challenges around hybrid work, how workspaces are evolving. These types of themes are fairly common, but what's working more its way into the program now, of course, is AI-related topics. So, the newer areas this year were about the impact that AI is having on various parts of an organization related to work.

That's going to lead us to a bit of a discussion of the keynote that I had where I presented some trends based on industry data. And one of the reliable partners that we talk about here a lot is Leesman. I did cite some of their data in my own keynote, and I'll get to that in a moment. But I just wanted to maybe step back and maybe you can add a little bit too about what Leesman brings to the conversation.

The Leesman Index and the State of Hybrid Work

Chris Fine

Well, Leesman, their basic franchise is a very large database of what you might call worker and management satisfaction data, studies conducted because they're hired by companies to conduct studies of the quality of the workplace and the quality of work and, you know, how people feel about where they work. And they have, last I talked to them, well over a million data points going back years and relatively statistically consistent studies they come out every quarter or so with some new data, and it's always really interesting because if they tell you for example that occupancy rates are X it's pretty reliable because it's based on a lot of input data and their data analysis is pretty good. We talked about a study they did it for one of my clients a year and a half or two years ago, and it turned out that a lot of what they said ended up being true. So, they're a good source of data, Leesman Index.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, and I reiterated at the event that this is not our data, and we're not pretending it is our data, but Leesman has been very supportive of what we do. And not only are they giving us blessings to cite some of their data, but I even spoke to, was in touch with the author of their current hybrid future report or future of hybrid work, I think it's called. Anyway, so the author, the lead author of the research there, Peggy Roth, we had some dialogue about this. In fact, she provided a quote that I included in my presentation to kind of reflect her overall view of the research. So, it's not just me interpreting their data, but it's actually, you know, coming from them as well. That's just a little bit more credibility, I think, for the research.

This is really important stuff to talk about because when we think about future of work, ultimately it's, yes, it's about people, it's about us, employees, what's the experience like? But also, in the context of this event, the IT Expo is a technology conference. So, Chris, we certainly bring that technology lens to all of this and say, okay, well, what technologies do we need and what role can they play to make this new world of work work?

So, the data that they present and a few other sources that I cited, tells the story at face value. Then we kind of add our own perspective to that to say you know, this is what the trends are telling us. One of the really notable things that I did cite in their research is when you look at the reasons people come to the office and you look at the reasons why workers work at home, interestingly, Chris, the factors are fairly similar, but they just occur in different order of kind of like ranking of being mentioned. You know, things like work-life balance, comes into play. The fact that hybrid work is being mandated. In other words, they don't have a choice, but that seems to be one of the main reasons for each work setting.

Other things have to do with managing their time, social interactions. It's just interesting that the themes aren't that different, but the kind of the priorities of them are. What this means is for organizations and business leaders who are kind of trying to solve this hybrid work dilemma, I have to realize that, you know, there's different sets of needs and expectations for home work and office work. And you got to kind of manage not just the happy ground in between, but there's just a lot of factors. That's another thing that came out of the research. There's a whole laundry list of things, so it's not like you got to get one thing right. That's why, as we've always talked here, hybrid work is really hard to do because there's many factors that go into making that balance work, right?

Chris Fine

Right.

Jon Arnold

What it comes down to is two big themes, and one is the need for social interaction to make it work. Obviously, that's a real driver for going to the office to be in person, but when you're at home, to address that need for social interaction, this is where the technology comes into play a lot more, right? You've got to have the right tools and not just having a meetings platform like Teams or Zoom or Webex, whatever, but also, you've got to have the right hardware around you. You've got to have the right pieces, physical pieces that make that experience good.

So, this isn't really new. The pandemic kind of forced us to learn how to do this stuff. But the data from other sources, aside from these one that I cited in my talk, points to this about the importance of technology to make a better work environment. I talked about a CBRE survey, Chris, and I know you can weigh in on this as well for corporate real estate.

They talked about the importance of what technologies they need in their offices to draw people back to the office. And far and away, the biggest consideration was video conferencing technology. So, if you're going to invest money in retrofitting your office, yes, it's got to have whatever that kind of friendly environment that makes it more social for people to come in. But you've got to have the right toys in that meeting room or those meeting rooms and huddle spaces, etcetera, that make those meeting experiences really, really good.

That was an important piece I found in the research and also the need for things like touchless experiences. And that did definitely follow from the pandemic of not, handling anything physically. But they want to have more and more things that are touch-based and sensor-based, right, to monitor things like, you know, temperature, air quality, lighting. In short, you're right, smart office. Not too many people, I think, have smart homes per se, so it's not like they're going from one smart space to another. But if the office can have really kind of cool smart space features, that's another draw that can bring people back to the office, right?

Chris Fine

Yes, yes. And on the office management side, did you guys talk about occupancy analytics? Because that is a huge topic right now.

Jon Arnold

Yes, it was all about monitoring the usage of the spaces to see what, as you say, to optimize the types of spaces, how they're being used. That guides their decisions about how much real estate space they need to function properly. Another really fascinating piece that came out of this was not only is the physical environment of the office space itself important, but so is everything around the office environment.

This CBRE research pointed to the importance of things like, well, if you're going to draw people from their homes to come to an office environment, you've got to have amenities around that office that help them with their work-life balance. Obviously, you want to have restaurants and local shopping and things for, when they go out for lunch, there's got to be nice places to go. Daycare centers for young kids, it's nearby. On the commute side, you’ve got to have access to good public transit. You’ve got to have charging stations for EVs, things you wouldn't normally think about as a future work kind of driver.

It's the stuff around that physical environment that kind of factors into the bigger picture of, well, if future work is going to be office based, it's got to be more than just the physical space. In other words, when you're making decisions, if you're leaving your expensive grade A space downtown and say, okay, we got to do it differently now, don't just make your decision based on getting the cheapest rent, right? Or getting it into a location that might be kind of in the middle of nowhere. That's just not going to cut it, right?

Chris Fine

Yeah. I mean, I would say that what I'm seeing is the opposite, at least in the major urban markets is companies are looking to grab really premium space, right? Because then they abandon the older, not quite as advanced, not quite as cool to be in kind of space. You've got these areas of the cities that have really been developed in recent years where they're attracting the tenants and the companies are kind of starting with a blank slate in the new space and they're saying, you know, whom can I hire and what can technology can I use to make this really sort of next gen and attract people? We do see that out there.

I would say more than renovating older space to do the same thing, if that if that makes any sense. That actually surprised me. I thought coming out of the pandemic, we would see more just renovation of space, because that's a time-honored way to upgrade things, right, without a big move. But I think a lot of a lot of especially sort of Fortune 500 type of companies said, why don't we just think more out of the box? We can either find or build a new headquarters that really is the way we want it, rather than just upgrade the existing space. There's a lot of change happening and a lot of upgrades, which are an opportunity for, you know, an open ceiling that you can put different technology in that you wouldn't do to necessarily if you were just kind of doing an incremental upgrade. You see what I mean?

Jon Arnold

Yeah, yeah. Opportunities up and down the whole ecosystem, right? It's an opportunity for municipal governments that are trying to attract investment to their area, right? They could be a partner in developing these kinds of new modern spaces that check a lot of these boxes that I was referring to here and just getting it right. As we've always been saying, to get people out of their homes, you got to give them a better experience that they can't get at home. I think there’s a lot of latitude here for out of the box, to look for different ways and do it on their terms, right? Talk to employees. What do they want, right? Then you'll hear, well, I've got the two-year-old kid, I need daycare to make this work. Okay, well, you got to find a way to, you know, make that part of the equation.

So yes, technology is a big part of the story, but these other things are a part of it too, of course. Catering to that work life balance. We can go on and on about the research, but we need you to have a reason to come next year too, folks, so I'll move on.

I did want to say when I did my opening keynote at the event in our presentation space, I'd be remiss to not mention, of course, Jeff Pulver. I was determined to get him somehow on the program. just because it's so important for him to be part of this conversation. The only space I could work him in was on the keynote. So, I had Jeff as a special guest, and because you couldn't be there, Chris, he kind of took your spot and he added his comments as I was sharing all of this industry data. And it was great to have his perspective there. It was also timely, Chris, you may have noticed this too. During the event, he noted that it was marking the 30th anniversary of one of his VoIP milestones. I can't remember which one it was.

VocalTec and VoIP Being the Big Bang of Telecom

Chris Fine

VocalTec.

Jon Arnold

Well, yes.

Chris Fine

It was the first company that really had voice on the net and IP-based voice. Essentially everything we use all the time, including how we're recording this now. is derived from that original research. And that those early days, it's like, all the internet evolved from some of the work that led up to that in those decades. So, 30 years, right? 30 years of voice over IP. And remember, when that started, nobody thought that it would detonate the entire telephone industry, right? Telephones have been around for 100 years - they worked really well. And look at where we are now.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, it's truly, for folks who weren't there, it was the big bang in the telecom industry. And VocalTec was the first company that kind of brought it to life in a way that businesses could see value in. And well, so the direct line from there to the show was Ari Rabban, who I know you know, from Phone.com. He and I crossed paths many times there - he worked at VocalTec early on, and of course, his boss, Alon Cohen.

Yeah, he was supposed to come to the event, but I think he had a sore back or something and couldn't come. For those of you folks who need to know, kind of connecting the dots of this history, Alon was the founder of VocalTec and certainly one of the pioneer innovators and inventors - probably inventor is the better word of the technology that came to be VoIP and has come to, as you say, Chris, kind of displaced. legacy telephony and putting it into a packetized form so it can run over data network instead of a voice network.

That truly is the big bang that changed everything in telecom. So, there's a real through line here, not just future of work stuff, but the people who are in this TMC ecosystem and the remnants of Jeff Pulver and his VON community are alive and well and still doing things. This space just continues to kind of evolve with the new technology, so it never gets boring.

Chris Fine

No, it doesn't Jon. So, as we think about winding down, what would be a couple of takeaways that you think people should really hear from your sessions? Like, what really came out of it that people should know and would help them?

How AI is Reshaping the Future of Work

Jon Arnold

Technology is obvious, but the AI piece, as we know, it changes every five minutes. One of the big messages is the need for employees to be able to upskill. One of the catch phrases I said at the event was, if you're not thinking about AI, you're not thinking about future of work. You need to filter future work through what AI is doing. A couple of sessions talked about the AI use cases and innovations that are working into the workforce, impacting, you know, everything from knowledge management, workflows, communications, et cetera. If employees are going to thrive in this new environment, they're going to have to get some level of skills that are specific to AI, how to use it, how to manage it, how to orchestrate it. And of course, the digital generation, I think, will come to this natively.

But for older employees who you really want to keep, you're going to have to develop some form of skills base to help them adapt to AI. I think that's a really important theme. In fact, one of the other slides I quoted from another survey from Stanford talked about the impact AI is going to have on the workforce. Yes, they expect some headcount reductions through automation, but they also expect net new growth from new jobs that will be created that will be kind of AI-based. And a very high percentage of respondents to this particular survey expected a pretty high level of upskilling to be required for their employees. So, this isn't just me talking, but the data supports this. I think that's a big, maybe an HR-related kind of aspect of future work that I think is a big takeaway from the event.

Chris Fine

Interesting, because that kind of supports what we said last couple of times, which was like every technology evolution, there's reskilling. People do learn new skills, and they become able to work in the new environment.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, and that's just going to be a constant with this stuff. And not just work itself. But as we've talked about earlier episodes, Chris, is the organizational kind of structure itself. How are businesses of the future going to be organized and managed? Is it going to be a flatter structure? Is it going to be a decentralized approach? AI is going to reshape a lot of this stuff. So that's one.

The second big takeaway is because AI is becoming so prevalent and there's a hunger for data now. Businesses are recognizing, feed the AI machine and make it work really well, it just needs an endless stream of data. And now they've discovered that data in the workplace from our everyday communications and interactions has value. That's why this is so central to our world of communications technology. Now they are investing, mandating that IT develop capabilities to capture as much data as possible from our everyday communication. That means that all of our calls, all of our texts, all of our emails, because they're all digital now, create these new forms of data that have never been really tapped.

When Jeff Palver talks about vCon and what he and Thomas Howe are doing, this is exactly what they're talking about - for emails to find a way to access, pull out relevant data from these bottomless pits of communication that we've been doing forever. This represents kind of like a bit of a gold mine of potential data that we can be using to make our organizations smarter, more agile, etcetera. That's a very big picture, and it might be a little kind of grandiose and maybe a little too overreaching, but it's very clear, certainly from our sessions, this is a new reality that organizations are seeing. I think it's going to be a key driver for what future of work becomes. It's going to be really about data and knowledge management, because we now have the capabilities to do that with AI.

Chris Fine

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to watch what happens with the vCons because there's two aspects to that that are really intriguing. Number one, it puts some structure around unstructured data.

Jon Arnold

Yes.

Chris Fine

And then the other is it provides a level of security. As I understand it, and it's getting better all the time, to enable you to block off certain elements of data that you might or might not want vacuumed up into the AI. If you have a policy or there's compliance, you know, or other things, it allows you, because it has some structure to separate elements of conversation out, right?

Jon Arnold

For sure. Yeah, and this is gonna seed a lot of what we do for next year, right? Future of work. I think, Chris, as we wrap up now, I'll just give people just a bit of a trailer here to say if you were there, you saw most of the sessions. I did several informal polls during the sessions, and it's clear that most people who were there were first timers, so that's great to see. But because the sessions are not recorded, if you weren't there, you weren't there.

What I will say to you is if you're interested to catch a little bit more of the vibe of what we did during the event, I can point to three things for you. First, if you follow me on LinkedIn, I was posting throughout the show with some commentary and photos in the moment. So that's there to be tracked if you're interested. Secondly, the Future of Work News is a newsletter that's part of the TMC family. They wrote articles about a few of the sessions, and they're publicly available. I also did a blog post a couple of days ago, which is on my website, where I kind of centralized most of the photos I had from the event and links to those articles that covered specific sessions. at the event.

So that's all there. You can check that out on my blog anytime. And of course, what we're talking about here on the podcast. That's the closest I think I can give you for what was going on there. My buddy, Thomas Brannen, a fellow analyst, he videoed my keynote and he's going to release and share some snippets of that fairly soon. So, stay tuned. That'll come on my LinkedIn channel. That's pretty much the story. With that, Chris, we'll wrap up and maybe get you thinking about next year, 2026, February. We'll do it all over again and just keep fine tuning as we go.

Chris Fine

Looking forward to it, Jon.

Jon Arnold

Thank you. Me too. All right, we are definitely at time. So, thank you all for listening today. We hope you enjoyed our podcast here and that you'll continue with us as we explore the future of work here on Watch This Space. You can access all of our episodes at www.watchthisspace.tech or wherever you subscribe to your podcasts, and we're on all the major platforms. Anything that you like from listening to us, we'd love to hear your thoughts or review or rating, and certainly suggestions for future topics that Chris and I can cover here for your interest. And with that, I'm Jon Arnold.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. Thanks for listening, everyone, and always thank you for following the podcast. And we'll be back next month with another episode of Watch This Space.

Companies mentioned:

Cognigy, HP, Jabra, Leesman, Mitel, Nice, Phone.com, Verint, VocalTec, Zoom

AI Overload - February 2025 Episode Transcription

Audio links for original podcast:

·       Here, on the dedicated Watch This Space website

·       Here, on the Podcast section of my J Arnold & Associates website

Transcription: AI Overload

Jon Arnold

Hey, welcome to Watch This Space, the podcast about future of work. Every month, we bring you insider perspectives on how digital transformation, emerging tech, and generational change are shaping the future of work. We are two analog guys finding the groove for all of this in today's digital world. I'm Jon Arnold, and these trends are my focus as an independent technology analyst in my company, J Arnold and Associates.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. I'm an independent consultant and strategist specializing in workplace technology, IoT, and security. My company is Integrative Technologies. Hi, everyone. Hi, Jon. Welcome to another episode of Watch This Space. How are things going with you?

Jon Arnold

Well, they're okay. I've been away most of the month through January, or at least out of commission for most of the month of January. And as you can probably tell from my voice, yes, I've been, I'm at the tail end of a pretty crappy head cold, chest cold, and I will go today as long as my voice will let me. So, Chris, for those in the know of technology, all the wonderful things that AI can do, is there any app in your toolkit that can scrub this out and make my voice sound normal?

Chris Fine

I haven't found one yet. It may be out there. I usually hear about the latest things from the kids or whatever, yeah. I'll have to ask them. I wouldn't be surprised if there's an app out there to try to remind you to take your medicine or whatever, right? But I don't think there's one that could reach in and actually make you better. I'm sorry you've been suffering, but hopefully it's getting better.

Jon Arnold

Well, it could be good use of deep fake type of technology, I suppose, to, you know, synthesize my voice somehow or make it sound like somebody else's. But that's not where we want to go. How are you doing?

Chris Fine

Yeah. Yeah. I've been busy about to about to move. My whole abode is just a mess and I can't find anything. And it's just startling when you realize how much stuff you have, how much you've accumulated. Other than that, things are moving along. Everything's more or less on schedule and doing the work out there in the industry with the smart building, smart workplace stuff. So I can't complain.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, good, Well, the joys of podcasting, folks, yes, you cannot see how disruptive Chris's world must look right now. And you can't see what it looks like for me to have the end pieces of a cold. I'm not at my best, but I will try to sound my best and we will get through this episode. We're in our eighth season, if you don't know that, folks, and we continue along here. And never short of storylines to talk about. I think we have a few themes to get through today, Chris. One, I think, very topical and one just more about the general flow of what happens in our work lives. So I will push this back to you, and then we will get these conversations going.

Chris Fine

Okay. Well, I think we were going to talk a little bit about DeepSeek, but I had a comment on your remark about Deepfake. I've been watching a series on Netflix called Churchill at War, which is actually very good. One of the things they've done is that they have added excerpts from his six-volume excellent series, The History of World War II, which is a lot to read, but if you're into that period of history, it's an amazing resource.

They have him reading it in his voice, but it's not really him, so they're adding effectively Churchill recordings that never existed and it does a pretty good job. That was just another instance where you're watching something that should be fairly well-known production type work. Or if somebody was imitating him, it would be common to have a human being, an actor imitating Churchill's voice, which of course many do. But this is actually a machine, so I thought that was interesting.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. What a great can of worms, folks. You know, what comes to mind right away is the Anthony Bourdain film, right? That was all synthetically created from, you know, using samples from his real voice to create the narrative for the film, you know, but it was all AI based stuff. Even when you're being transparent about it, like when they do these posthumous voiceovers with artists, what was it, Nat King Cole and Natalie Cole, right, doing these quote unquote duets, right? And there's been others like that as well, right, where they can just use the voice and somehow either it's the real voice or the artificially created one and meld it in with current things. And before you know it, you really can't tell the difference. And frankly, for the fans, do they really care?

Chris Fine

Well, I think that Nat and Natalie were a little different because those were tracks that he made that she could, she could duet with.

Jon Arnold

Yeah.

Chris Fine

But that was him.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, that's the real, that's an example of the real. But then when you get the fake stuff, but it's all AI generated, you make it sound like, oh, the person's right there in the room with you. And, but as I say, did the fans really care?

Chris Fine

I doubt it. What do you think?

Jon Arnold

I agree. Like, I agree that you give the people what they want, so to speak. And, but you heard Paul McCartney rail against this stuff recently too, right? With the, even like the songwriters these days have no control over their creation. Right? It's just, it's the streaming services take over everything. And you're just like one small cog in that whole kind of ecosystem. Whereas, you know, the music traditional music publishing model ensured that the creators, you know, got their fair cut.

Chris Fine

Yeah, there was another interesting music related nugget. There's an interesting article, if anybody's able to get the New Yorker online or by Apple News or however you do, or if you subscribe, there's a little article in there about Spotify. Because there's a new book about the history of Spotify. And, you know, I'm a Spotify subscriber so no knock on Spotify but I will say it's kind of interesting to learn about how the Spotify playlists fill themselves out and apparently the way they do is that there is a sub group of artists who nobody really knows but who produce all of this kind of innocuous listen in the background kind of music for Spotify, and they make a fortune, some of them.

For example, if you sign up for a playlist called like Soothing Piano, there's going to be a portion that's actual, you know, traditional music that was recorded for whatever reason, but happens to fall into the category of soothing piano, right? Like, let's say there's a Chopin Nocturne that was recorded because it was an album of Chopin, but it happens to be soothing. So they put that in, but then they start going, you can run these things all day, and people do. It starts to go into this kind of quasi synthetic content that was manufactured just for this.

What's going on right now is there's a whole new bunch of people who want to get into this field who are essentially generating all this with AI. It's not really music in the traditional sense, but it's sort of modern-day music for Spotify. They are real people. But now there's another generation coming, which where it's all AI generated. I thought that was interesting, too.

Jon Arnold

Oh, for sure. This is a whole other episode, folks. But, you know, this is a generational thing, right? As we say in the intro, our analog world - our radar is very good about stuff like this, and we have lots of defense mechanisms to push back against it. But for the digital generation, especially five, ten years on from now, where this is all they're going to have ever known, who's the wiser? And so for us, we just see the bar is getting lower and lower for the kind of things that we thought highly of in our day. The world ecosystem for those things is different now, and you really wonder if any of it could be recreated again ever at all.

There was another one of those flashbacks in the paper today about the, it was a Band-Aid in ‘85. They talked about, you know, doing these mega productions, we are the world, to raise money for famine in Africa and things like this. And getting all of those pop stars together in one room and to create something new and something that the fans would love was a pretty good, honest effort. I would just really wonder, could that even happen today?

Chris Fine

Oh, I think it could. I just don't think they'd actually get together.

Jon Arnold

Yeah.

Chris Fine

If you look, there's a YouTube channel, for example, called Playing for Change, which is actually very good. It's all work done in the spirit of, you know, against hunger and other good causes in the world. And they have many famous musicians who participate in that. But they also have a more or less consistent pool of musicians around the world that they can pull to become part of whatever the song is. They just take the money they make off YouTube and give it to the charities. You're not going to get everybody in the studio with Quincy Jones, you know, RIP. But you might very well see an even easier way to produce these if people do get behind it would be my point of view.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, would love to see something like that. It takes you back to, you know, Concert for Bangladesh. I think that's the ground zero for all of this stuff. And I think we've talked about this too, having watched that movie recently a couple of times. It’s more innocent times, but the genuine effort that went into that for a true cause and the way people rallied to support it and put on a show that has never happened before, right? That was a really groundbreaking thing and just took just one guy to do it, just like with Bob Geldof to make it happen. But, you know, that was probably the best example of the power of music for social good that I can ever think of.

Chris Fine

Certainly one of the ground breakers. But you know what? If we wax nostalgic here, no pun intended, we're going to lose this entire podcast.

Jon Arnold

All right, let's get right into the present.

Chris Fine

All right, since we know we have to cover this, why don't we get an update on how Future of Work is going? Your conference, it's coming up.

Jon Arnold

Okay.

Chris Fine

Yes.

Future of Work Expo Preview

Jon Arnold

All right. That's very current. By the time folks listen to this podcast, you'll be making your final travel plans for Fort Lauderdale. So, Future of Work Expo is in Fort Lauderdale, February 12th to 13th, which is a Tuesday and Wednesday are the days for our sessions. We've been talking about this off and on here, of course, for quite some time. It's an annual event, so it just happens once on the calendar. And if you don't know, you can see from the thumb banner we use for this podcast that there's a logo on there for TMC.

TMCnet is a media sponsor for our podcast, and they are the kind of the big tent under which the Future of Work Expo takes place. Their mothership show is called IT Expo. It's been running for 20 plus years. It's probably one of the most established tech shows around and they have a very loyal base. It’s in South Florida, and they run a series of sub-events connected to the IT Expo, and my Future of Work is one of those. So, I've been kind of embedded in that ecosystem for quite some time.

As you know, Chris, we've been doing this for a while, and we've got a pretty loyal following, both of attendees and people who compose our speaker roster. Several of our regulars will gladly come back and be part of the experience, which is largely defined by a series of panel sessions that run those two days where we have moderated discussions. So, no presentations, no slideware, and we talk about various aspects of what the future work concept is kind of getting behind.

I realize it's a fairly broad generic term for better or worse, but we've been tracking the space, you and I for years, Chris, both at that event and here, of course, here on our podcast. It's one of the pillars of what we try to talk about. And yeah, so the state of Future of Work, 2025 edition, a lot of similar themes to what we've done in the past, but you can't get away from the predominance of how AI is kind of, I wouldn't say like an anvil falling on top of everything, but it really has that feeling if you're not talking about AI, then you're not talking about future of work.

Chris Fine

Certainly any aspect of the future of work, you have to factor that in, right?

Jon Arnold

Oh, totally, yeah. Again, this is one of those for better or worse ideas because people can't seem to embrace AI fast enough, again, for better or worse. But the idea here is that the promise that it brings for not just automation and efficiency, but this bigger term of knowledge management is becoming a big deal in the workplace now. And of course, by workplace, we're largely talking about, office-based environment, knowledge worker kind of thing. But really, it does apply in a lot of ways to, the remote settings, the mobile workforce, people who work, in campuses and retail and hospitality who aren't in an office or at a desk.

But the common thread for all of those environments is that AI is finally being able to not just generate, but capture and process vast amounts of data that we never really could do anything with before. And what I mean by that, Chris, as you know, is that text has long been a digital medium. Voice in some ways has been a digital medium, but it has never been really captured. And video is kind of catching up. But when you have all the different ways that we communicate, when they can all be in a digital framework where all the inputs can be captured, now you create the tsunami of information. It's really just raw data, but the content of our conversations like we're doing right now, Chris, It's just words, it's just sentences and ideas, but AI now has the ability to attack that, so to speak, process it, treat what we would think of as unstructured information, unstructured data, and pull relevant things out of that apply to whatever the inquiry is about, right?

In other words, if you are, let's say you're a frontline worker and you're, maybe you might be a clinician and you're about to see a patient, and you don't know who this patient, you want to get a kind of a quick primer on their whole healthcare history, their family history. Well, AI can help kind of pinpoint nuggets of data from across these spectrums that it's able to capture and give you a pretty good snapshot that makes it a much more informed conversation. I think anybody in any line of work can see the benefit of that. Now, there's risks and downsides, but I'll stop at that point now, Chris, because to me, that's the essence of where AI really comes into reshaping future of work.

Taking a Closer Look at AI

Chris Fine

I agree with you, actually. Let's just say for a moment that you just looked at AI as a technology, as a tool, right? And you said, what would be the next generation impact of AI versus like the last generation? So, one of the one of the greatest breakthroughs of the last generation of work-related technology was the ability to organize and manage and derive insights from vast amounts of structured information. When you started to get relational databases in the 1970s and 80s. Companies like Oracle, you know, it was gigantic to this day. Going back to IBM, you know, Sybase and then Microsoft SQL, SQL Server and all of that. Plus tools like Excel, where as long as you had a structure to the data, you know, that's like a front-end programming language that could take input from all these repositories of data.

That went further into statistical processing and everything. But the big sort of thing that hung out there as an unsolved problem was unstructured data. And this was a huge issue even in my days as an IT person, right? What do you do with unstructured information? If you can apply a tool like AI to really manage and harvest from unstructured information, that really is a big leap. If you neglect the social and economic implications of AI and you just look at it as an office tool, it's a big, gigantic impact. It's unstructured information and being able to draw conclusions from vast wells of information that nobody with traditional tools could ever plumb. That's kind of how I see it anyway.

Jon Arnold

Exactly. So if we say, okay, I trust what AI is doing here - and I'm not even in a position to question the provenance of how it did what it did or how it drew its conclusions. If you accept it, like with humans, when we communicate, there's an implicit level of trust that I know something about you and I can believe what you're saying, or I take it with a grain of salt. That's our human judgment at play.

Well, we don't really have that with AI yet. If we implicitly trust what's there, you're kind of assuming that AI is, as you say, as a technology tool, that it's objective, it's colorblind, all that kind of stuff. But as we know, at the heart of it, garbage in, garbage out, AI only produces outputs based on inputs that humans create for it. At least now. It's going to change down the road, but when we start building in our own implicit biases, maybe covert or overt, whatever, they've worked their way into the data. That's when you start getting into all kinds of issues. You just name it. Any cultural vector you could think of creates problems. Also, of course, determining what's truthful or not and what are your sources to determine that.

There's a lot of gray there, that if you take AI at face value, you're not going to get past, or you won't even realize that it's being actually more selective than you think. The other side of the coin that we have to keep in mind is that as the humans who are still supposedly in charge, we haven't yielded everything to AI yet. But you can see how this can become a very comfortable relationship where, geez, look how easy it is to get things done now, where you might ultimately have to compromise a few things in terms of how truthful or accurate or representative those inputs really are.

Chris Fine

Yeah, and it makes it more difficult because it's hard to know all the assumptions. I was thinking of an analogy in the structured world. Let's say you're trying to do an evaluation of something on a spreadsheet, and you want to come up with what the thing is worth right now. Like, what are you going to pay for it? What's the range? And there's a lot of assumptions that go into that. If you're a disciplined analyst of this, you would go back and study the model really carefully. And hopefully it would have been created in a way, and let's say Excel, where you would be able to see what those assumptions were fairly easily.

And if it wasn't obvious, then whoever made the model for you, and if you're the decision maker, you're going to send them back and say, you have to lay out for me all the assumptions in this model, right? What's the discount rate? Just what's the cap rate? What's, you know, I could go on and on with the gibberish. My point about AI is it's really hard to understand because there's so much unstructured information and so much inference going on. You know, how do you flag where the assumptions are, right? Like, are you just going to rely on the output and just say, hey, that's biased? Or are you? How do you do an audit on it, I guess is what I'm saying. Does that make sense?

Jon Arnold

Yeah. Gatekeepers, guardrails, all of this stuff. There's so much to be determined or things that haven't been factored into the future of work equation yet. These are all threads that we're going to try to talk about on the sessions. An important aspect of that too, when we talk about, well, what does the future work look like with AI? Of course, certain things go to a logical conclusion that if you can automate tasks and if you can use Agentic AI to have one or possibly many virtual assistants under your control that you send out there as bots to do your bidding, then there may be less and less. work for you to do.

So, there is a risk of automating yourself out of a job, which is always a possibility with this stuff. And of course, management is always going to favor that which reduces costs of their overall operation. For them, the charm of AI is very much about cost reduction, automation, as opposed to enriching the workforce's skill set. We can get down that path a little bit later. I think the main idea here is that the AI piece, we have to look at it more holistically about where it will be a positive impact on future of work.

Of course, if AI is going to be the centerpiece of so much of what we're going to be doing, what are the skill sets, right, that workers are missing, that they're going to need? They're going to have to become more AI savvy because ultimately, a big part of their jobs are going to shift to becoming more like orchestrators of AI tools to manage their workflows as opposed to doing the things that we've normally done on our jobs about thinking and decision making and sharing and mentoring and, you know, working in teams.

The very essence of work is going to become kind of filtered through a lot of these AI capabilities, but the workers themselves are going to need different skill sets, as will their managers. And frankly, as will the C-suite decision makers who are backing AI big time - they have to understand the ripple effect that this is going to have on the workforce itself. Unless, of course, their plan is to ultimately replace everybody. But I don't think that's a very realistic scenario.

The Adaptive Nature of AI

Chris Fine 

Don't you think that's going to happen, though? I mean, again, I'm kind of looking at precedent. And of course, precedent can always be broken. But you know, a lot of people ended up having to learn the last generation of tools. That wasn't all an automation of manual processes. There were old breakthroughs in what they were able to do just with whatever capabilities were of the system site. I think that does come. The question is, where's the displacement? As any new technology does, but where does it happen? You just don't know in advance. You don't know what the impact on the day-to-day work content and future of the workforce. But I guess the only thing that we could argue right now is that it is going to be significant, don't you think?

Jon Arnold

I do, yeah. I just think it's the scale of the speed at which it's happening. I'm glad you brought up earlier iterations of technology. When the PC came around in the early 80s and we started to learn about things like, you know, WordPerfect and the PowerPoint type programs and Excel type of programs, they were all these new capabilities, Lotus, right, that we never had before. Well, we didn't have the skills. We didn't have any background in these things. It was all new. So I think everybody kind of learned on the fly. I think to this day, it's fair to say that most people who use these tools only are familiar with or use a small fraction of the capabilities because we don't get tech literacy taught as a subject in school.

When we enter the workforce, we're missing the skills that we ultimately were going to need to be successful, we kind of have to learn them on the fly. But with AI, I don't know if that's going to be good enough. I don't think people are going to have the luxury of 5, 10, 15 years to kind of figure out AI as they go. I think they were able to do that with PC, and learned to get enough of a skill set to be effective in their jobs. But the technology has always remained far ahead of the limited use that we have for these tools.

Chris Fine

One difference about AI, though, is that you can easily see how it would very readily adapt to the user. If you have a PC or Excel or Word or whatever, they get progressively easier to use on different generations, subject to the limits of the paradigms around their design and the capabilities of the systems, but they don't treat one user differently from another, if you get what I'm saying, right? PowerPoint's not going to care if, and I know, you know, Microsoft might argue that they're really trying to make this different and have it be more aware of the user and the user's capabilities. But fundamentally, it's a program that runs a certain thing. It does a certain thing.

But you could argue that as AI advances, just as you or I would do if we were facing off against a colleague at work who-- and our colleagues are all different. They have different perspectives. They have different levels of skill, sets of skills, backgrounds, training, objectives, agendas, job responsibilities. I think the AI gets better and better at determining who it's dealing with. I'm not sure that's entirely a great thing, but I think that when you talk about learning and training, I think that more than past generations of technology, AI will just adapt to who it's dealing with. You get what I'm saying there?

Jon Arnold

For sure. As we will have to adapt to it, because I think one of the big things that makes AI different is this ability to learn and improve continuously, which we did not have in the workforce before. As I've always said, the thing with AI is when you train it, it never makes the same mistake a second time. It will keep getting better and better, and as you say, become more user-friendly as we go. That also means as its knowledge base expands, it's going to be harder and harder for the workers to actually contribute something new to what AI doesn't already do. This kind of touches a bit on like what we talked about last episode, Chris, with The Maniac.

Chris Fine

Yes, The Maniac. Yeah.

Jon Arnold

Right. It's the same thing. Like, what's the point if all I'm going to be doing is training my successor? And that raises the issue, of course, a lot of false positives that you do just to derail it because it's going to take your job away in six months. That's all getting kind of bleak. The main point I think for our listeners is that with AI, there's a lot of sides to this. It's not even a coin. It's almost like a hexagon or something. It has multiple sides and they're all different and we don't really understand it very well yet. Nobody really does, but it's becoming more and more the center point of all the future of work kind of initiatives.

When we talk through our program, whether it's about cybersecurity, job skills that we're going to be needing, the impact of AI on the role of IT, right? These kinds of things, how we're going to be collaborating in the future, how workspaces are evolving, right? These are all tangents that are all these multiple sides of that AI hexagon or whatever you want to call it, but they're all different and they're all going to flow through AI. So that's kind of the gist of what we're going to be doing at the event. So sign up, folks. Come on and join us. We have a few speaking spots left, not many, but yeah, it'll be a continuation of what we've been doing for quite a while.

Chris Fine

Well, it sounds like a wonderful program, and I hate to miss it. It's the one time that I am. It's all related to the move. But if I were able to be there, I would certainly be there and would urge anyone else to try to attend as well. Now, do you want to talk briefly about DeepSeek, because that was kind of interesting what happened this week with the suddenly available, seemingly very cheaply produced Chinese AI. What did you think?

Jon Arnold

Well, that was the big, that was the newsworthy item I thought we were going to start earlier when we talked about future of work. But it's all connected because it's a very good example of what we were just talking about with this whole new universe with AI - how things come quickly and their impact is at a much greater scale than we've ever seen before, it sure obviously took all the big tech stocks down a few pegs, just really out of fear. I think that all of a sudden, if their cost models become obsolete overnight, well, they've got a big problem on their hands.

You really have to, I think, look at this at a couple of levels. I don't think we're, either of us are data scientists enough to deconstruct what they're actually doing in terms of how valid it really is. But the point is that at face value, and we talked about this ahead of the podcast today, what we're really talking about here is, like with any other technology innovation, if you can find not just a better way to do things, but if you can do it on orders of magnitude less cost, you're going to win.

That's the scare that this brought into the whole thing. Not just the way that the Open AIs of the world talk on the scale that they feel is necessary for AI to bring value, that everything they talk about is in the billions or 10s or hundreds of billions of dollars. And you can also see where the current administration is going with betting heavily on AI on the scale that they're talking. It's clearly a big kind of invested belief system that this model is going to be the best way to do things. And if you undermine that in any way with something that's credible, then that is extremely disruptive, as we saw in the past few days, right?

Chris Fine

I think people will sort out how legit and how capable all of these things are. But I feel like from market disruption point of view, it sends a signal that you're entering the next generation of the technology, which essentially exploits or leverages the work done by the very expensive first generation. So If you think about, and we were talking about this before, you know, the internet and PCs and everything else we have today didn't spring out of whole cloth just from the investment made to create the companies that most capitalized on it, like the second generation of companies or third generation.

This was all built on work that was done at government taxpayer expense and some big companies like IBM, which again, had a huge involvement with the government, really from the end of World War II up through, say, the 80s. There was an enormous investment in creating all the foundations of what we now use. And that first generation of companies, a lot of them didn't keep innovating, and ultimately faced the innovator's dilemma. They didn't transition into the second generation of success. But then there was that second generation that was able effectively for free to leverage all that vast amount of knowledge and expertise and innovation that had come out of that big investment. And so I think when people look at this, maybe they say, maybe it's not these guys, maybe it is, but there's been this huge investment in sorting and filtering and adding AI and tagging and everything involved as vast repositories of data.

Now, who comes along and can just grab that, leverage it, that investment? And then how long do the original high-level investments pay off? You see what I mean? Like, if you take the example of communications networks, the Bell System, all of the work that was done on that, when did it stop making sense to support that from an investment point of view? And when did the payoff start to decrease? Because more and more of the value was being poached off by the successor companies that were leveraging all that work. It's the natural flow of things. And so I feel like that was one of the signals here.

Is DeepSeek Innovation or Disruption?

Jon Arnold

For sure. It's a bit like the difference between innovation and invention because DeepSeek is not creating something new, but they're finding arguably a better way, but more importantly, a much more cost-effective way of doing these things. And that's the big one, because when I look at AI as an analyst, one of the things I constantly talk about is that the cost is borne by the enterprises who are investing in these tools. I would say almost blindly that they're spending huge amounts of money on these LLMs.

We've talked about this before, but they're arguably not getting a great return on this yet because the ongoing cost of supporting these models and feeding them and fine-tuning them is ongoing and it gets more expensive all the time. The hyperscalers do very well with this because they have the kind of underlying raw data capability to do all this. But the enterprises are paying for these services, and it's up to them to generate the value from it. And if they are not getting what they feel is an acceptable ROI of some kind, this experiment with AI could lose traction, could lose financial support, and then you have a different problem because now it's not this open-ended thing that just the more you spend, the more you get.

That high cost first generation model has a lifespan. It's not sustainable that way unless the benefits are fantastically great, but we're not seeing that yet. So, if you could do it at a fraction of a cost, you're going to get the attention of the enterprise decision makers very quickly because they don't, it's not their mission to subsidize these first generation players in the hope that they're going to get the net result, because they won't. They have no reason to continue, as you say, if the decreasing returns start to become apparent, why would you keep investing in that model when I can do it for a fraction of the cost? Now I will have some compromises along the way. So those are decisions that have to kind of be part of it. And that's kind of the way we look at it with our analyst mindsets, right?

Chris Fine

Yeah, it's one of the things that's interestingly different about watching this play out as opposed to earlier comparables was even the high-cost AIs are so widely available, because of the subscription model and the use of the internet and cloud-based operations, right? If you think about the earlier analogy of computers and you think, one of the reasons that PCs were developed originally was because people wanted a computer in their home or to be able to get their hands on one, you could really invest a finite amount of money and start using a computer. There were the enthusiasts at the beginning, but then businesses. But it was true that, you know, and it was really expensive to get your hand on the prior generation of technology, just even as a user.

Now what I'm wondering is if there is a step function down in cost, like what further innovation does that enable? You know, how similar is it to what happened with PCs? Because you can get your hands on generative AI now pretty cheaply as an end user. You see what I mean? The fact that I could run this new thing on a Raspberry Pie, which there's a very interesting YouTube about, doesn't mean that, is it going to unleash a whole new flood of innovation because it's so much cheaper? I mean, usually that's what happens and it'll be interesting to see.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. So one of the cautions, of course, is China. The timing of it, of course, seems very suspect because it's coming at a time when the US is making clear their AI ambitions and commitment to it all. There's a certainly a geopolitical angle to this, which you can't underestimate. And it may be the subsidies that they might have gotten at home to do this might be far, far greater than we were led to believe. So maybe it's not as easy as they make it look. An interesting example I heard on the radio the other day, where they did an open AI inquiry about getting chips out of Taiwan. And is this going to be a problem for the US? The AI, the Gen AI results came back very fairly even-handed, fairly accurately.

When the same query was done with DeepSeek, the answer came back, it became a political monologue about how China does not recognize Taiwan and how it's not a sovereign state. It's always been part of the Chinese mainland, so we don't know what you're talking about. That's the kind of bias that can be built into a model like this, which can maybe, undermine a whole lot of the excitement that we've just been hearing. And maybe you're, you know, you kind of get what you pay for.

Chris Fine

We will see. The somewhat ironic part to note is I mentioned the experiment of running this on a little tiny Raspberry Pi computer, right? So it's pretty slow when it just runs on a Pi, the DeepSeek. But the guy who did the video was one of my favorite YouTube channels. He said, well, I can speed it up. I can attach a graphics processing unit to it. So he basically took a little adapter and hooked up a board that, you know, of the type that you put in a PC, a GPU, you know, a graphics accelerator. So of course, who makes all the chips in that? Nvidia, the company that came under all the attack with DeepSeek, right? So maybe it's not quite as, you know, obvious as it may have been that day on the market, you know?

Jon Arnold

So at worst, it's a wake-up call. You noted earlier as well, which we should leave a good note on for this is that as with any other technology, the Moore's law effect takes place at some point. Invariably, the cost curves in this LLM world are going to only get lower and lower, right? It's not going to be a constant level of high investment. The potential competitive cost advantage that DeepSeek maybe represents might be a very short-lived thing, because you got to go where the customers are. And right now, the customers are all with the hyperscalers. And eventually, it's in their interest for those cost curves to come down to keep it sustainable over time.

I don't think there's any industry where you can have a sustainable competitive advantage based on price. I don't think that's really possible. But there's always room for things to be cheaper as long as the quality isn't sacrificed. And I think that's the big change, the big kind of dividing line here with this is that I think with the OpenAI type of models there's probably a higher confidence in what you're getting than with something like this, a company no one's ever heard of from, you know, from a not a friendly partner to the US. So, it's complicated, but the wake-up call is there for sure.

Chris Fine

Absolutely. And on that note, having as usual, run longer than we thought we were going to run, are we wrapping up?

Jon Arnold

Let me run that by AI. Let's see what DeepSeek says about that. Should we end now? And the answer is, you should have ended 10 minutes ago.

Chris Fine

You guys are rambling on. I could have said that in like half the words.

Jon Arnold

That's right.

Chris Fine

Time to get lunch.

Jon Arnold

Exactly. Let AI re-edit this down for you and you'll get the 200-word version, folks.

Chris Fine

You know what I think we need? I think we need something called Gong.ai, which is like the Gong Show. It listens to everything we're saying, and when we get repetitive and taking too long to say everything, it brings the gong, don't you think?

Jon Arnold

Yeah, that could work.

Chris Fine

I think that's coming, by the way. It may not actually be the gong, but I'm waiting for more tools. There's already starting to appear in tools like Zoom and Teams and Webex, etcetera, where they let you rehearse a presentation and they gong you, or they suggest better ways to say whatever you're saying. I'm waiting for that.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, all right. Well, Chuck Barris was not on the wrong track, folks.

Chris Fine

Gong.ai, right? Exactly.

Jon Arnold

Different from Gong.io. That's a different company. On that note, folks, we're going to round it out now. And I mean now, and because my voice is going too. So, we're at the end of time. Thanks all for listening today, and we hope you enjoyed our podcast and that you'll continue with us as we explore the future of work here on Watch This Space. You can access our episodes at www.watchthespace.tech or wherever you subscribe to your podcasts. And, if you like what you're hearing, we'd love a review, a rating, suggestions for upcoming topics, etcetera. With that, I am done. Jon Arnold here, handing off to my partner.

Chris Fine

Chris Fine here. Thanks again for bearing with us and listening to us for this episode. Jon, thank you very much, as always, for the co-hosting. We will be back next month with another edition of Watch This Space.

Companies named:

DeepSeek, Microsoft, Nvidia, OpenAI

2025 Outlook - January 2025 Episode Transcription

Audio links for original podcast:

·       Here, on the dedicated Watch This Space website

·       Here, on the Podcast section of my J Arnold & Associates website

Transcription: 2025 Outlook - January 2025 Episode

Jon Arnold

Welcome to Watch This Space, the podcast about future of work. Every month, we bring you insider perspectives on how digital transformation, emerging tech, and generational change are shaping the future of work. We are two analog guys finding the groove for all of this in today's digital world. I'm Jon Arnold, and these trends are my focus as an independent technology analyst in my company, J Arnold and Associates.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. I'm an independent consultant and strategist specializing in workplace technology, IoT, and security. My company is Integrative Technologies. Hello, everyone. Welcome to another episode of Watch This Space. Hi, Jon. Always great to talk to you again. Things are still busy, winding down at the end of the year?

Jon Arnold

Yeah, same here, Chris. Same here. What I will say is we are heading into a new month, new year, and new season. This will debut our season #8 for Watch This Space, and as they say, we keep rolling along here.

Chris Fine

Yes, and we both hope that everybody had a happy and healthy holiday season and New Year. That you got to relax or spend time with family or go away or whatever you chose to do that wasn't just the same as all the rest of the year. Right, Jon?

Refresh Update for Watch This Space

Jon Arnold

Yeah, that's what makes it special. It's good to have a break, of course, and recharge. I certainly am seeing a lot of positive signs ahead for 25, certainly on the tech front, which is never dull, and change that's always going on in our lives. I'll start with the podcast and then I'll mention something about me and then you've got some change coming up too at your end. The first thing I would say is if you're listening to this by now, you have undoubtedly noticed a new look for the podcast. This marks the debut of some visual changes to what we do with the podcast, even though it's just listen only. I've added some nice visuals for each episode, which I think will make it a little more engaging, and there's going to be more to come over the next few months.

I'm trying to mix things up a little bit to give the podcast more visibility, be easier to consume, that kind of thing. We don't do this for a living, folks, but it's a good time to make some updates, especially as we go into our new eighth season. So, on my front, Chris, change, yeah, it's always good. I've had gone through a slew of home repairs in the past few months that I'm glad to be finally done with and don't have to worry too much about stuff like that, at least for now. Otherwise, all is good, but you've got some changes coming too, right?

Chris Fine

Yes, I'm busy going through all my collections of endless types of trivia and technology and sorting them out and getting ready to downsize in the new year, move out of the suburbs, move into the city. We're pretty excited about it. It's a giant project, but it'll be nice to have a simpler housing situation. But I have to sort through a lot of stuff. And that's what I'm doing right now. Decide what to keep, you know, do you need a hundred of something, right? Like, do I need a hundred of a certain type of switch? Just 'cause they're classic components and they're not made anymore; do I have to have a whole bag of them? I don't know. But take that and multiply that by a large number of things. That's what I'm doing, but the change will be good. We're looking forward to it.

Digital Natives Will Never be Hoarders and the Joys of Analog

Jon Arnold

Yeah. Well, as I said in the opening, generational change is part of what we look at with future of work and some real interesting parallels there. As analog people, you and I are not unusual in that we accumulate a lot of things over time. And with our passion hobbies of music and electronics, etcetera, you accumulate a lot of stuff that is probably of no use or interest to anybody but us. And I think it's pretty different from the digital generation that as we know, the streaming mentality, why would you own something when you can just stream it? And they tend to be minimalistic by nature. They're not collectors and hoarders from what I can tell, at least yet. As you know, because everything is digital now it's a very different world. They may well not have this problem, although they're probably going to inherit from us once we go, whatever we still have, right?

Chris Fine

I think 1-800-GOT-JUNK is gonna have a field day when we go, 'cause they're just gonna point at everything and say, make it disappear, as the commercial goes. But I'm bringing my core vinyl and my stereo and things I can't part with. The difficulty is things that are bulky that I just can't bear to throw away, and I'm trying to find a buyer for or to donate them to a museum. So, I may have to stuff them into my storage just for a period of time, which I don't want to do, but we'll see. Every day is a decision or 10 or 100 decisions, but you know what it is.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, gee, well, that reel-to-reel tape recorder and collection sure takes up a lot of room, right?

Chris Fine

That's staying with me.

Jon Arnold

You showed me at your house, you have a collection of radio broadcasts from, what was it, Cuba in the 40s or something? That's really eclectic.

Chris Fine

Well, I have a collection of transcription discs, which are 16-inch records that they used to use to broadcast radio shows because you could get enough on a side. Because if you remember, most records back then were 78s and they had three minutes on a side. These are really valuable, but I don't know, I'm going to contact the Library of Congress because there's just no way these are going to be thrown away. They're going to go to a worthy place. There's off-the-air recordings of Winston Churchill and Roosevelt from World War II and homemade acetates of various things. And I just am totally keeping that, even if I have to put it in storage. But there's also other stuff that is less eclectic, so we'll see.

Jon Arnold

Well, as George Costanza said, proudly pointing to his bald head, “these are the remains of a once great civilization”.

Chris Fine

I guess you could put it that way. I hadn't thought of it that way.

Jon Arnold

Well, we think it's still great, honestly. So there.

Chris Fine

Yes, yes.

Jon Arnold

I have my cassettes and I'm not getting rid of them anytime soon.

Chris Fine

I have those too. Am going to sell them and probably reduce that collection, but I'm not getting rid of all of them. I am getting rid of most of the DVDs because I digitize them. They're all on a server, and that's how they're going to be delivered in the future household.

Jon Arnold

We have to live in a digital world now. I have a pretty well-curated super eight movie collection from when I used to make movies as a kid. And I have a lot of footage from vintage concerts from the 70s that are pretty damn good. But there's no sound. So, they're of no use to anybody, but people who just want to look at stuff. But they're pretty good. And in fact, I'm working with someone here for a very famous concert in the blues world here in the 70s. And I have some footage. And he's got people with the audio, so we're going to get together and see if we can do something with it. So, there's a retirement project.

Chris Fine

I was going to say, you know, there's been a lot of work done where somebody's got the video and somebody's got the audio from an old concert because there were a lot of tapers and engineers and amateurs that would try to tape concerts back in the day.

Jon Arnold

And so, match them up underground recordings, right?

Chris Fine

Yeah, you just got to match them up. That'd be great. It's easier to do now with digital technology.

Jon Arnold

We can find the people who have the source material. Oh, this is exciting. And yes, the analog world, folks, for some of us is still alive and well, but we have to go digital now, Chris. Let's get on track with today's episode. We're going to start kind of where we left off last episode, where we talked about some 2024 takeaways. We hope you enjoyed those, folks. But we also tried something different - we did a short story review and should probably do another one of these days. We talked about this novella With Folded Hands that you turned me on to. I thought that made for an interesting segment, and now you've got a little follow on for us on that.

Another Book Review – The Maniac by Benjamin Laboutin

Chris Fine

I do. Last month, the book club that I'm in read a really good book called The Maniac by Benjamin Laboutin. And it's really a book in two parts. The first part of the book is about Jon von Neumann, who for if anybody doesn't know, he was a brilliant physicist and mathematician, probably one of the smartest scientific and mathematical minds of the 20th century, and did many things, but among them was pioneering work in the foundations of AI, a lot of work on what constitutes thinking, and how a computer could think. That was extremely influential, and pretty much any kind of computer today owes something to Jon von Neumann.

The second part, so the first part of the book kind of laid the foundations of what von Neumann said about AI before there was AI. Then the second part was about the story of how AI came to dominate the chess world and then the world of Go. If you remember a few years ago, an AI system designed by Google actually defeated the world champion of Go, a guy named Lee Sedol. And Go is the world's most complicated game. It's just not even in the same universe as chess, and chess is complicated enough. But anyway, remember at the end of our discussion of With Folded Hands, one of the things that was said was that what's the point if this AI, if these humanoids have mastered everything so much, I feel hopeless. Why should I play the violin? I'm sitting here with folded hands.

Imagine this, I'm reading this book, and then toward the end of the book, after the champion was defeated in Go, he said “I used to have this sense of pride”, he said a couple of weeks later after losing his third game against Handel when he was interviewed on a popular talk show that recapped his entire career. After this man lost to the AI, he also started losing against regular people, though whatever it was out of him.

“I thought I was the best, or at least one of the best. But then, artificial intelligence put the final nail in my coffin. It doesn't matter how much, it's simply unbeatable. In that situation, it doesn't matter how much you try. I don't see the point. I started playing when I was five. Back then, it was all about courtesy and manners. It was more like learning an art form than a game. As I grew up, Go started to be seen as a mind game, but what I learned was an art. Go is a work of art made by two people. Now it's totally different. After the advent of AI, the concept of Go itself has changed. It's a devastating force. AlphaGo, which was the name of the AI that beat him, did not beat me. It crushed me. After that, I continued playing, but I'd already decided to retire. With the debut of AI, I've realized that I cannot be at the top, even if I make a spectacular comeback and return to being the number one player through frantic efforts. Even if I become the best that the world has ever known, there is an entity that cannot be defeated.”

How about that? That was taken from real life in what you would call perhaps an early episode of the type of AI dominance that With Folded Hands was ultimately about.

Jon Arnold

Yeah, I love it. And you're right, Chris, it's scary and it's deflating, that's for sure. We've had these conversations and there'll be more, as you say, the dominance factor is there. I remember when that whole AI thing was happening around Go, that one thing they found is that once AI could beat a human based on how it was trained by humans, the next level was how AI trained itself. That took it to an even higher level beyond what humans could do. When the AI is training the AI, we have no role in it anymore. Our points of reference don't even come into the picture.

This becomes kind of like a Tower of Babel thing. We're just taking it higher and higher to the creator, so to speak, that there's nothing really to stop it. And this is the point that I take away from all this is that when AI can be autonomous and do everything, you know, teach itself and teach it in ways that humans cannot, we can't compete with that. And that's when it stopped. We have to stop calling it artificial intelligence. What I've always been saying is it will soon become known as advanced intelligence, at which point humans have lost, that we are going to be superseded, surpassed by it. And there's a whole realm of, I know, sci-fi that writes about all of this and the singularity and this concept of centaur in the workplace, etcetera. This is all going to happen in our lifetime, whether we like it or not, I think.

Chris Fine

Well, you're right. You just made a very good point that the whole section of the book about happenings with chess and Go made, which was the way that the AI really beat this guy who was just a historically great champion of Go, was it made a move that probably no one would ever train it to make. It was a move that really started him down the path of losing and he just kept on losing because this was a move that had never historically been made and Go as you know, is thousands of years old. It's a really old game. Like when you think about chess, it's the same way where you have all the classic games and you learn all the moves and the openings and you know, the how you do the offense and the defense and everything.

I'm not an expert but essentially Go was the same. It was a really long tradition of go, and the machine, the people who programmed the AI essentially said, forget all of that. Like you went through your first iteration of learning everything and studying all the human games that were ever played. But now your objective is just to win without breaking the rules. And that's where that's how the AI threw Lee Sedol off the pedestal because he just never expected that move to be made. And the minute that move was made, he was in trouble.

To your point, that once this takes hold to a certain level in any area, it's almost innovative, right? It's going to take an approach that's really just about accomplishing the goal. So, it's going to take a similar approach to what innovative people always take, which is, I know the rules, I respect the rules, I know the past, I respect the past, but if I have to go in a different direction, I will, right?

Jon Arnold

That's human nature.

Chris Fine

Yeah, but it’s not just us though anymore, right?

Jon Arnold

Yeah.

Chris Fine

Anyway, I just wanted to read that little follow up because it jumped out at me when I was reading the book. It's like, wow, we just had this conversation about that, about the Jack Williamson story from the late 40s. I'm reading this book and this just, I couldn't believe this passage was in there. And that was why he said he retired.

Jon Arnold

Yeah. So, for posterity, maybe just say one more time the name of the book and the author.

Chris Fine

It is called The Maniac, and it's by Benjamin Labatut, I think his last name is L-A-B-A-T-U-T. And the amazing thing is he doesn't normally write in English. This was his first book written in English, and the language is absolutely stunning. And when you read the book, you almost think, if you weren't bound by all the conventions of the English language and writing, but you knew what all the rules were, what kind of a book would you write? And this is it, it's very innovative, so definitely recommend it.

Our Watch This Space 2025 Outlook

Jon Arnold

Love it. Okay, we gotta do more of these. Let's talk about 2025.

Chris Fine

Yes, we need to do that.

Jon Arnold

Let's spend a few minutes anyways on this. Yes, folks, we don't have stuff that well scripted out here, but we hope you enjoy the dialogue. I think we're just trying to be very authentic, sharing the way we see the world unfolding. Why don't you lead in, Chris, and talk a bit about your top ideas that you see as big themes for 25?

Chris Fine

I think the theme of 2025 is more stability in terms of understanding the role of the office, and the sort of the solidification and steady state of hybrid work. I think you're starting to see office space being redesigned in a real post-pandemic way, and that will continue. I see the trend of organizations not trying to refurb old space past a certain point. and moving to really new buildings in urban markets like New York. I see that continuing. In fact, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that said that one of the big real estate operators in New York City is just doing great because they made a bet on all these new buildings. That's where the kind of top tier tenants are moving to because you can configure the space in a really up-to-date way.

And I think the trend there in terms of internal architecture is almost more hospitality-like than any kind of traditional office. The lighting is more subdued, the space is more comforting and welcoming, more oriented toward collaborative work, but also quiet work if you need it. Less cacophonous, less traffic passing by everywhere, more separation of spaces. Things like that, more different shaped and configured spaces. Make it a place where people understand its role and how that role is additive in a hybrid environment. That's where I see it with work. Then the other trend is obviously the continuing growth of AI. And at that point, I'm going to turn it over to you to get started with that one.

Jon Arnold

The comment you made before getting to the AI, Chris, made me think when you talk about a hospitality-themed approach. Again, you just talked about what the author from The Maniac was doing here, with a pretty innovative take on AI. The idea here that sometimes the innovation comes from outside and, the way you look at the problem set. So, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of the major hotel chains start getting involved, because they know how to make a great space look and work, just like they do with restaurant design, this kind of thing. And if we ask the Herman Millers of the world who do offices - and they're really, really good at it - that's the world they come from.

This strikes me as a bit of an opportunity to come from the outside and say, how do we rethink all of this? I've been saying for a long time that I think there's a big opportunity for the Zooms and Ciscos and the Microsoft Rooms people of the world who could be branding those experiences in these business centers you can go to rent space. It's kind of like these third spaces for doing work because it can be a great place to showcase through technology.

And I think here, rebooting the workplace is a great opportunity to re-engage your workers. It's like when you go to those hotels, what they're really pushing now is for you to want the Marriott or the Hilton experience in your home. Like they have lines of merchandise that they sell. If you want to buy the bedding, have that Westin sleep experience in your home. They're trying to extend that experience because the hospitality brand is really warm and fuzzy. It would just be a logical extension to me to see the workplace take on some of those elements.

Chris Fine

Yes. And Miller Knoll, which is now Herman Miller, a combination of Miller and Knoll, has a lot of innovative research work going on about how to redesign furnishings and fixtures for this new generation of workplace. And you also have a new generation of designers and architects coming in whose aesthetic really, I think, was formed by a combination of not liking the trend toward the open offices with the long table, which was your kind of classic pre-pandemic office with the bright lights, and everybody's wearing headphones and sitting there at long tables working.

A dislike for that, having come up in it, and then a fascination with a new way to think about the design of the workplace. And that's all tied in with the technology too, which makes it ridiculously easier than it was once upon a time to have an all wireless office with all the bandwidth you need, video everywhere, collaboration spaces, electronic signage, you know, a lot of AI behind the scenes trying to make all this stuff work better. So, I think there's a new generation coming up in workplace thinking and design that's really exciting. Right.

Jon Arnold

I think so, yeah. And you know what? Last year at Future of Work Expo, we did have a designer, one of the speakers for one of the panels about workspaces. She was good, and a very important part of the equation. If the pendulum starts swinging back to that office experience, we could be not that far off from, I hate to say it but maybe shifting more towards a more corporate paternalism model where maybe they will start hosting daycare centers, make them pet friendly. So many people who live alone, right, have pets, you know, to bring your cat or your dog to work and have a safe space for that. I could see those things happening, which have nothing to do with tech, right? But catering to, as you said, you know, the millennials, the Gen Z mentality about how they view work and what that environment needs to be to work for them.

Chris Fine

I think it's already here. Some innovative companies like Google, they'll buy into the real estate in a whole neighborhood. And even if an apartment building a couple of blocks away from the office isn't officially a Google building, they'll be one of the investors. They'll bring in real estate investors who are super interested because of the Google facility that's around there. I've seen that happen with various neighborhoods in New York City. You could always kind of say, is this great or not? You know, is this not so good? But I do think just because of the reality of economics and the current state of, you know, unaffordability of housing and many other things, there is going to be some effort to try to get involved in the work-life balance.

Now, you know, we have to put in our big caveat about that, because that's a certain kind of company and a certain kind of worker, which does not constitute a lot of people, right? But I do think that you may see that happen more in the industrial manufacturing as well, where they want to attract and keep the right people, the people they want. If they have to invest more in the area or the city or whatever or the infrastructure or whatever they're going to do it. Right.

Jon Arnold

Okay, let's slide over to AI. I'm just going to have a few brief comments because we can go on and on. So, to watch for 2025, I'll just do two or three big ideas. One is, we're going to hear more about small language models. Large language models, LLMs, have kind of become part of the lingua franca in a very short period of time. Anyone who's talking about AI, that has to be part of your vocabulary. That's just the way it is. The reality is, this space - and we've mentioned this before - it's pretty much dominated by the hyperscalers, right? Amazon, Google, Azure for Microsoft. These companies are so dominant because of the cost to build these models. You know, small players can't do this very easily.

 In our world of communications tech, so many companies are building their AI solutions based on these LLMs. We’re already seeing a kind of homogenization of this capability that it's almost becoming table stakes that LLMs are kind of driving so much of you know, the development of AI applications. It's hard to differentiate, right? So, and I think companies are realizing this, aside from the ongoing cost of investing in these tools and not getting the return they would hope for, they need to feel that they can compete more effectively using these tools. This is going to put more attention on the other end of this spectrum, which would be small language models.

The idea there is, of course, to build your AI applications around the language that you use every day in your company, in your region, in your language, in your vertical, right? Stuff that's very specific to the business that you're in. That allows you to create much more precise forms of language, just like we, if you're a well-read person, you're going to have a more precise vocabulary than someone who doesn't read a lot. This is a more effective way to get anything done. So, I think companies are going to start to see the need to do this. There's more sustainability, there's more benefit from having all this, than having just LLM off the shelf kind of capabilities that everybody else has.

Chris Fine

You mean very, very well trained on a smaller data set?

Jon Arnold

Yes. More relevant, and more precise to your universe, right? Your local world. You start getting into things like even like local dialects and slang and all that kind of thing. Those are the real subtleties that really localize who you are. I could see all kinds of businesses saying, yes, we need more of that. So, I think that's one trend to watch for 2025 for AI.

The other one that I’ve mentioned before is the continued cost that companies are bearing to get in the AI game is really, where are the returns? There's going to be more pushback on that. I think that's going to put more pressure on the vendors to help educate their customers and maybe provide more tools that will help them measure the impact of AI on business outcomes or processes or forms of automation, that kind of thing. I talked last year about how I think there'll be pushback on AI this year. That's the kind of economic pushback, and I do think that's going to become more real going into this year. I'll pause on those two now, Chris, for your take.

Chris Fine

I agree with all of it, Jon. I see what I see happening more and more, and it's just the AI getting to be more part of the daily fabric, right? That it becomes a very standard tool, becomes a very standard way of looking at things. I think it's gone through the same stage a lot of technology goes through, where it's kind of a feature, right? Like it's an add-on, but not integrated into the fabric of everything, right? And then that's where you get why, where's the payback? Where's the ROI, right? Because it's kind of an adjunct.

But where I think it's going, and I think there's good and bad aspects of this, is it becomes just more built into everything. It's already built in. Like if you do a search, the first thing that's gonna come back to you is AI generated. So, it just becomes more a natural part of everything. Don't think that's entirely great. I have my mixed feelings about it, but I think the payoff really starts coming when it's just incorporated into the core of things, you know, rather than add it on. The analogy that I would give is when you, let's say when TV went to HD, right?  So, you suddenly have a lot more resolution in the picture. You have a lot more capability of multichannel sound. But for a period of time, you had programming that was kind of designed for the old system. So, the HD was a great add-on. It made it look better, but it was old to begin with.

And like if you played a VCR tape on an HD TV. It took a couple of years to where it just became the norm that movies and TV shows were shot in really high resolution and with all the multi-channel sound and everything else. Only then could it really take advantage of the capabilities of the system. I think we're starting to see going into 2025 that's what's happening with AI as they start from it rather than adding it on. Do you agree? Do you see that too?

Will AI Peak Soon, Like a Shooting Star?

Jon Arnold

I do. And if anything, I may start even thinking now about 2026. As fast as AI has come onto the scene, I can't think of anything that's happened this fast. When you think about how smartphone adoption and the adoption of social media sites like TikTok and Instagram, those are big hockey stick things that happened in much less time than previous tech innovations. And I think AI has outdone them all in terms of going from just a science fiction project to something that has become almost indispensable and ubiquitous in like not even two years. And as you say, once it becomes baked into everything, I just wonder, as fast as it has come into our everyday lives, certainly in the workplace, I just wonder, are we going to hit peak AI very early because it's happened so fast?

Maybe kind of like a shooting star, it peaks really early, and then we don't think about it too much anymore, so to speak. Then I'm just wondering, well, so what's the next thing going to be if AI has kind of conquered everything it's supposed to do? You just think of all the innovations that come along. I can't think of anything bigger right now, honestly, but it just makes me wonder if AI runs its course in a way very sooner than later, just because that's the nature of the technology. I just wonder, will there be something else that isn't on anybody's radar right now that we'll be talking about like this next year? I don't know. But it makes me think about it.

Chris Fine

I think there's a lot to go. I mean, yes, there's some of this first phase that was kind of a fad, lots of predictions that are taking longer to fulfill. But that's not uncommon with this kind of technology breakthrough. I'm thinking about things like genomics, right? Where, you know, where that's gone from where it started, you know, and the Internet and social media and a lot of other things. But you're right. There's always gonna be a certain level of hype, but it's probably the biggest watch this space there is, I guess would be the way I'd describe it.

When you were making that point, I was thinking I saw an interview not too long ago with Eric Schmidt of Google and Sun Microsystems fame. And he made a really interesting point because he said the next step in AI is where, really similar to what we said about Go, where the AI makes more of a determination of how it's going to tackle the problem, not just going and doing it faster based on kind of how the human being that's telling it to solve the problem kind of suggests to solve the problem. And one of the areas that Eric Schmidt commented on this was medical research, where in the past, AI was used as a big pattern matcher to go through a huge amount of research and see if it can find correlations for, let's say, a condition that isn't getting a lot of research money, but needs to be researched.

What we said was that the AI will become more like a researcher itself. So, if you aim it at a condition, it will find out what the symptoms of the condition, the history of the condition, and then will go ingest this vast amount of potentially seemingly unrelated research that may result in a treatment for the condition. And I thought that was an interesting thing because it's a different approach and it reminded me a little bit of how the Go program ended up winning.

Jon Arnold

Just to add to that, Chris, that's how I view this AI thing as well, that as interesting as it is in our world of workplace, communications, tech, I've always felt that this is actually one of the, I don't know, more boring, less interesting problem sets for AI. In terms of a bigger picture, I do think we will start seeing these kinds of breakthroughs in those broader areas of life sciences, climate change, education, urban planning, these kinds of things. I also think the capability is there, Chris, to identify and discover new problems, diseases, illnesses, genetic markers that we haven't discovered yet at all that might add a new chapter to the whole kind of world of what's possible with medicine and extending health and all of these kind of things and predicting diseases and conditions.

To me, it's very exciting that way. And when you start thinking globally, that's where I think the AI story becomes, to me, more interesting and more noble in some ways than I think than what we deal with every day, looking at contact centers and workplace productivity. They're important, but they're not nearly as important as some of these bigger issues that AI could be serving us very well for.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong with AI?

Chris Fine

Well, this starts to get into nightmare territory too. And it makes me think of another short story A Logic Named Joe that we have to cover at some point. That's about a world that's very similar to the Internet. Again, it was written in the late 40s, maybe 1950, where knowledge is stored in central repositories and computers on the edges use it to help solve problems. And one of these devices gets made slightly out of spec and its mission changes. Instead of just finding an answer to what's asked, let me be proactive and say, well, here, have you thought about this? And what's really the answer? That causes the machine to burn through all the rules that the system has about what you can and can't answer.

There's a little vignette when somebody says, well, how do I kill my spouse? And the computer comes back and says, well, are they blonde or brunette? And he says, you know, blonde. And they said, there's a poison in this kind of hair shampoo that nobody knows, but it actually only kills blonde people of a certain age. And you put a little bit of that in their food, and nobody will ever figure out what happened to them.

That's what proactive AI has the threat of doing, and you don't want that to happen. But it could also use the same kind of system if they'd asked that machine, say, what is the cure for Lyme disease? Or something like that, they would find it. They ask how to rob a bank, and the machine figures out how to get in without ever being detected and it just goes on and on and havoc ensues, you know?

Jon Arnold

Yeah.

Chris Fine

You just have to hope that doesn't all happen, right?

Jon Arnold

Yeah. AI ethics and morality. I think these are going to be the courses people go to university for soon, because this is what we're going to need. One of my favorite Groucho quotes, I'm sure you know it too, he says as he's trying to establish his credentials – “These are my principals. If you don't like them, well, I have others.”

Chris Fine

Exactly. We're getting a little giddy here.

Jon Arnold

That's almost 100 years ago, folks, but it's just as true today. Okay, so we’ve got to work our way out of this episode, and I want to do that with just a final nod to Future of Work Expo coming up February 11th through 13th. We've got a great program coming, and I have to at least acknowledge that TMC, the host of that show, is a sponsor of our podcast here. Also, many of the themes on this podcast are similar to what we're going to be talking about at the show.

I hope you will come and join us in Fort Lauderdale. We'll certainly follow it on my blog and my LinkedIn posts. The event itself has a website of its own, and you can read all about the program at www.futureofworkexpo.com. And you and I did a video interview that is very likely out by now, Chris, about the event. And I've got a series of them running on TMC's video site. So, we're doing lots of things to kind of let the world know about it. And we hope to see you in Florida.

Chris Fine

Well, I know it's going to be a great event, Jon. Absolutely.

Jon Arnold

Thank you. Yeah.

Chris Fine

I hope everybody manages to attend.

Jon Arnold

Yes. we want people there. So, lots of time. You can come. We won't turn you away.

Chris Fine

Yes, it's really a good program.

Jon Arnold

Thank you. Thank you. Yes, we've got a good collection of speakers. We always do. But check out the site if you want to see what's there because we've been adding speakers all the time. And on that note, it is time to go. We're at the end of time for today, so I want to thank you all for listening. Hope you enjoyed being here with us as we continue exploring the future of work here on Watch This Space. You can access all of our episodes at www.watchthisspace.tech, or wherever you subscribe to podcasts. And if you like what you're hearing, we'd love you to leave a review or have a rating posted. And certainly, if you have ideas for other topics in the future, we'd love to hear from you on that as well. And with that, I'm Jon Arnold.

Chris Fine

And I'm Chris Fine. Thanks for listening to Watch This Space. Jon, always a pleasure to be with you. I again, hope you had a good holiday. Good luck in the new year and stay tuned for next month for another episode of Watch This Space.

Companies mentioned:

Google, Herman Miller