Duncan Stewart is Deloitte Canada's Director of Research, and as the public face of Predictions, he did his usual first-rate job pacing us through the highlights. The overall scope is beyond my everyday coverage, but the trends are fascinating for sure. No big surprises for me, but it's nice to see the trends presented with so much substance behind them. I'll just share a few top-line takeaways here, and then steer you to their site, where you can download the research and read further for yourself - and you really should.
1. Wireless spectrum - like real estate, they're not making this any more, and this is the year we run up against a mobile spectrum deficit. Demand, of course, is being driven by data - gee, who talks on their mobile phones any more? - and given the out of control growth, you knew this day was coming. Needless to say, prices must rise to get supply and demand back in synch, so watch for new tiers of mobile data plans in 2013.
2. Who said PCs are dead? Duncan - and others - have been talking about the post-PC era for a while now, but it's a bit misleading. Mobile devices - tablets and smartphones - have finally bypassed PCs in terms of units, but by far, we spend most of our online time on the PC. He shared some nice metrics, and I'll be citing those in another post, so I'll keep you in suspense for now - or just go read the research. :-)
3. Enterprise social networks - a good idea, but... nobody really uses them. As popular as these things are - however you want to define them - most people use them in a passive way. It's too bad, given that they're generally free, so they can be a useful platform to share knowledge and communicate. I guess there's just something about free applications that spooks people. It's easy to collect contact names and build out your address book, but not many of us actually turn this into gold. I can think of a few reasons why, but until Mark Zuckerberg or Reid Hoffman bring me into their inner circles, I'll hold on to those thoughts. Wouldn't you?
Enough for now. This is just a taste of what Deloitte's research has come up with, and I hope you dig deeper - here's the link. They've got a pretty good track record, and I think you'll find this time well spent.